Home -> Law Blog Directory -> Law Students Blogs -> Expressio Unius

Law Students

: Expressio Unius

Dixville Notch

By wt

There's a small town in New Hampshire that always opens its polls first at midnight.

Those votes came out like this:

GOP:

McCain: 4
Romney: 2
Giuliani: 1

Dems:

Obama: 7
Edwards: 2
Richardson: 1

Wow, Hillary gets shut out. But there's good news for both Romney and Clinton. Dixville Notch has been almost universally non-predictive in the most recent contests.

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 2004 Wesley Clark would have won New Hampshire. John Kerry did.

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 2000, Bill Bradley would have won the Democratic primary. Al Gore did (although Bradley finished within four percent, one of his best showings). George W. Bush would have won the GOP primary, and we all recall that McCain won big.

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 1996, Bob Dole would have won the New Hampshire GOP primary. Pat Buchanan did (although Dole was within a percentage point or so).

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 1992, Bill Clinton would have won New Hampshire. Paul Tsongas did (although Clinton did manage to persuade the press that his second-place finish made him 'The Comeback Kid').

If Dixville Notch were predictive, then in 1988, Dick Gephardt would have won New Hampshire's Democratic primary; Michael Dukakis won by 16 percent. George H.W. Bush would have won the GOP primary and... hey, wait, Dixville Notch got one right!

So congratulations, everyone except for Obama and McCain. You lost Dixville Notch!

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on January 08, 2008 (boomark / email).