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Clinton Comeback in South Dakota?

Tracking Intrade this afternoon, I noticed that Obama-to-win-South-Dakota stocks plummeted from the mid-90's to the mid-50's. That's a huge swing, and one that no one I've been following expected.

So what's driving Obama's stocks swoon? Well, an ARG poll showing Clinton up by 26 points in the state!

Can this be right? Is Clinton going to make a final surprise in the Badlands state? Prior polls showed Obama with a double-digit lead.

My guess is that the poll is an outlier with a sampling issues and/or a demographic anomaly. I don't think Obama, with substantial Native American support, Tom Daschle's endorsement, and a strong record in the Western primaries, is going to go down by 26 points.

And to prove it, I bought 26 shares of Obama, at a nice discount.

But we'll have to see tomorrow night.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on June 03, 2008 (boomark / email).