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This Ain't No South Carolina

By wt

The networks aren't going to call this one before the polls close.

The polls are irritatingly close, with McCain up in most of them but by an average of only .6%. With a winner-take-all primary, that small lead is the difference between night and day.

And with Giuliani and Huckabee falling so far behind, you have about 40% of the electorate (their one-time supporters) that may decide on McCain or Romney today, just as they're entering the polls.

The CW is that Huck's folks bleed to Mitt and Rudy's to McCain, but it may not be that simple. Key here may be what the Cubans do in South Florida. Rudy had worked this constituency pretty hard, but those that didn't vote early already may be up for grabs.

Which leads to my last point. Miami-Dade and Broward, where much of the Cuban population resides, are notorious for coming in late and could be decisive in a close race.

Also keep in mind that some of the Panhandle counties are on Central time, so there won't be any real votes released until after their polls close at 8 Eastern.

This is going late tonight. We may not have a winner until tomorrow.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on January 29, 2008 (boomark / email).