International Law

Thoughts on the SCO

By Stan

Not much in the way of interesting China news today for some reason. This article on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (take a look at the Wiki on it) is worth a read, however. Here’s a taste to whet your appetite:

The current disagreement between Russia and the United States over the Georgian conflict has strengthened interest in the SCO. Although the U.S.-European bloc remains the most influential in the world, the separate regional power centers in Russia, China and Iran are rivals to the West in their own rights. Moreover, an increasing number of Russia’s neighbors, including SCO members, understand very well that a good relationship with Russia is the best guarantor of their security and territorial integrity.

Hmm. China + two energy countries with rocky relationships with the U.S. Very interesting dynamic here.

The role of the SCO will increase in importance as Russia and China combine their common interests. Although China does not support Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it will look favorably upon Russia’s attempts to stop further NATO expansion.

China is very big on sovereignty issues, a policy usually attributed to modern Chinese history and its interaction with Western nations. In this case, the sovereignty issue is a bit muddled. Who was/is at fault for the Russian move on Georgia? I’ve heard lots of folks on either side make compelling arguments for/against Russia and Georgia, and as I’m clueless about that part of the world, I am not going to venture my opinion.

My point is that China, which has assumed a subdued role in the Georgia matter, is not looking at this from a sovereignty perspective, but from a realist, energy policy and balance of power, viewpoint. Makes sense to me.

There is also lots of commentary lately about the danger of U.S. chest thumping on a variety of issues that will push China and Russia together. I can certainly see this happening under a John McCain administration. Speaking of McCain:

Another interesting idea is the creation of an alternative organization to the Group of Eight that would be composed of the current BRIC states –Brazil, Russia, India and China — as well as a few additional major states such as Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa, Mexico and Nigeria. Within a few years, it would be able to compete for influence with the G8 — especially if Russia is expelled from the organization.

This seems far-fetched, as was McCain’s stupid suggestion that Russia be kicked out of the G8. It was a throwaway line designed to make an old dude look like a tough guy. American politics . . .

Whether the SCO or an alternative organization steps up as a balance to a U.S.-dominated bloc remains to be seen. A lot will depend, however, on the rhetoric coming out of Washington in the next couple of years and whether U.S. foreign policy remains combative or cooperative.

Full post as published by China Hearsay on September 02, 2008 (boomark / email).