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How to Rob a Store and Get Away with It.

At the Freakonomics blog, there is an interesting discussion about the prisoner's dilemma game. The idea is that you get to ask three people one question and then decide which one you want to play the game with.

The description of the game is taken from William Poundstone's book of the same name.

There are some interesting suggestions.

My own contribution was:

"Question?! I am not going to ask a question.

I am going to say the words "Shut up the f-up, I explained", and see what the response is.

This is a test of skill - can I say something which both signals my intent and discovers the other person's intent.

Most of the questions, so far, fail to reflect on what signal is being sent.

I would want to move the conversation to silence."

The mechanics in the dilemma game strain belief, and I don't believe that the reasoning makes it out of the economic laboratory or class room. Remember that there never were any prisoner's dilemma games that were empirically studied in the wild and then the abstract model was discovered.

To understand the dynamics of trust, signaling, and mistrust, we need to look to literature - especially detective stories.

In Swag, Elmore Leonard writes about a department store robbery gone bad and the resulting dynamics of mistrust.

Frank and Stick are white thieves specializing in armed robbery of convenience stores, liquor stores and small grocery stores.

Frank is also professionally friendly with two black gentlemen, Sportree and Leon Woody. Frank uses Sportee to acquire the guns he and Stick use.

Sportree plans a more complex stick-up at a very large downtown department store, using Frank, Stick, Leon and several others. Things go awry when one of the gang, Billy, shoots a witness. But, Frank is a witness to Leon killing Billy in cold blood as Leon and Frank make their escape. However, they do stash the 5 bags of cheques and cash in the store, according to Sportree's plan.

The day after the robbery, Stick - who wasn't part of the stick-up crew- returns to the department store to pick up the loot that the crooks had stashed.

Stick is caught and held by the Detroit police, charged with conspiracy to commit larceny.

Meanwhile, both Speedtree and Leon are wondering if they can count on Stick to keep his mouth shut.

Frank tries to persuade or convince Sportree and Leon that Stick can be trusted to keep silent.

He tells Sportree and Leon that when Stick is released on bail, he will come and talk to them. Stick is released on bail the next day. Sportree and Leon appear satisfied with Frank's efforts.

Stick is released from on bail. Sportree phones Frank to tell him that both he and Stick should meet Leon at a motel. Sensing a trap, Stick gets Frank to phone Sportree back and tells him that they are going to meet him at the lounge Sportree owns.

Stick and Frank walk into Sportree's lounge, but Sportree is prepared. He greets them with a loaded shotgun - which he points directly at the two.

Leon expertly searches Stick and Frank; finding no weapons he declares that "Looks like they still friends".

Stick explains patiently to Sportree and Leon that he isn't going to do a deal with the police.

Leon sums it up by saying "You're saying you pure and they ain't nothing to worry about?"

But, Stick goes on the offensive, accusing Sportree and Leon of setting him up, and cheating he and Frank. Stick tells them that there were only 2 sacks and not 5 in the box he was instructed to pick up at the department store. "Where is the money", he asks?

Sportree explains that it was all part of a larger plan. Stick and and Frank shouldn't worry, once Stick's pre-trial is over they will split up the money.

Stick pushes for his share now, and Frank joins Stick in his demands.

Sportree and Leon relent and drive the four of them in Leon's car to the original meeting place.

It is a set-up.

Sportree has a small revolver in his jacket, and Leon hide a .45 in the motel room's washroom which he retrieves immediately.

The end comes suddenly. "There wasn't anything to talk about, nothing to look at, no faking anything."

Leon comes out of the washroom with the Colt .45.

Stick, magically, produces a Luger shoots a surprised Leon dead, and kills Sportree -of whom it is not reported whether he was surprised or not. Only that he grunted as he died.

Of course, Leonard cannot simply give the Luger to Stick. Stick had to earn that plot development.

This strategic drama takes place between chapters 21 and 27 in the Leonard's novel Swag.

Here is the theoretically interesting aspect to this drama: the pareto and nash point are the same, because Stick really isn't going to do a deal, yet the outcome is the worst for one player and not the best for the other. It is a fake dilemma game - it looks like a dilemma from each person's point of view, but since they cannot credibly reveal their own true preferences, each acts -wrongly as it were- as if the other person is lying.

I highly recommend reading the entire book, and of course any Leonard's novels.

Full post as published by Misleading Advertising Law on May 20, 2008 (boomark / email).