Home -> Law Blog Directory -> International Law Blogs -> China Law Blog

International Law

: China Law Blog

China's Economy Will Be Hurting. Unless It Isn't.

By Dan Harris and Steve Dickinson

Elliot Ng over at CnReviews just came out with a very thoughtful post analyzing China's economy. The post is entitled, "Global financial crisis will hurt China much more than the US," and it says China's economy is based on a three legged stool, two of which are weak. The three legs are "export-led growth," "real property growth," and "government spending." Right now, only government spending is still strong. The post pulls from a number of leading economists and analysts to conclude that China's economic future will not be good and that we can expect China's economy to slow to 5-6 percent yearly growth. I tend to agree with the analysis of this post, but whenever dealing with economic predictions, I always feel compelled to throw in the caveat that they only tend to be accurate if all assumptions hold true, which they hardly ever do. I was one class short of an economics major, which means I studied just enough to know that economist's predictions are correct about half the time. On a somewhat less gloomy note: An economist, a physicist and a chemist are stranded on an island with one unopened can of food. The physicist suggests they roll the can down a hill where it will strike a rock which will pierce the can and release the food. The chemist suggests they cool the can in the ocean then heat it in the sun so as to cause the can to burst. The economist suggests they assume they have a can opener. Let's hope for the can opener.

Full post as published by China Law Blog on November 30, 2008 (boomark / email).