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How O?Donnell Can Do It

By the numbers alone, Delaware is a tough state for GOP candidates. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 100,000 in a state with only 620,000 voters. The last time the state went for the Republican presidential candidate was 1988, and it hasn't sent a Republican senator to Washington since 1994.

Even if Christine O'Donnell did not carry her burden of controversial television clips, she would face an extremely difficult challenge. Recent polls haven't been promising: The September 16 Rasmussen poll has her opponent, Democrat Chris Coons, ahead by 11 points, while the September 18 Fox News poll gives him a 15-point lead. Both polls show that a large number of voters already have negative feelings about O'Donnell -- 60 percent in the Fox poll say that she is not qualified to be a senator, while 54 percent in the Rasmussen poll viewed her unfavorably.

#ad#Coons's website urges voters 'to show Delaware won't elect a Tea Party senator.' And, unfortunately, that message has some resonance. Forty percent of voters in the Fox poll were strongly opposed to the tea-party movement, while another 9 percent were somewhat opposed. '[Delaware] is still a state that is very centrist in its own politics. I don't think that fact has changed in the last two weeks or two months, to be honest,' said GOP strategist Don Mell.

How can O'Donnell prevail in such circumstances? She will have to sell two ideas to voters: that Republican policies will benefit the state more than Democratic ones would, and that she herself is qualified to represent Delaware in the Senate. And that is what her campaign has set out to do.  

O'Donnell's first step is reintroducing herself to the voters. 'It's no secret that there's been a rather unflattering portrait of me portrayed,' she said during a candidate forum last week. According to a campaign spokesman, she plans on 'traveling throughout the state, unveiling her positions on a variety of issues over the course of the campaign and#...#contrast[ing them] with those of her opponent in the race.'

Signaling her determination to concentrate on Delaware, O'Donnell announced last week that she would no longer appear on national media outlets. In an interview with Sean Hannity (her last such appearance), she said the exposure wouldn't help her get votes. 'I instead want to go to as many town-hall forums, as many candidate forums, as many church picnics that I can fit into my schedule, so that I can meet the voters,' she explained.

#page#O'Donnell is also working to reassure voters that she has no intention of implementing her non-political convictions. 'I have my personal beliefs, but our Constitution defends our right for the voters to disagree with me. And that's the right that I'm going to defend,' she told Hannity.

Next, she'll have to sell her policies. While much of the country, tired of high unemployment and the economic fallout from the recession, is turning right on the economy, Delaware seems relatively indifferent.

#ad#That may be attributable to Delaware's unemployment rate of 8.4 percent, lower than the national rate of 9.6 percent. There is discontent over the state of the economy -- 66 percent rate it as 'not so good' or 'fair' in the Fox poll -- but there doesn't seem to be any clear consensus that it's the Obama administration's fault. Thirty-five percent think Obama's policies have hurt, while about the same number believe they have helped.

O'Donnell's campaign thinks that her fiscally conservative message will appeal in Delaware. A campaign spokesman said that her 'fresh, outside approach' would be attractive to Delaware residents 'trying to make ends meet and provide a better life for their children and families.'

National Republican Senatorial Committee communications director Brian Walsh compares her approach  to Scott Brown's. 'Brown focused on a simple message -- less government and lower taxes -- and it clearly resonated, even in one of the bluest states in the country,' Walsh says. 

Chris Coons is now receiving more serious scrutiny. The man dubbed 'my pet' by Senate majority leader Harry Reid is a committed liberal -- and O'Donnell's campaign plans to highlight that, hanging Reid, Democratic tax hikes, and Obama's unpopular agenda around his neck.

In a small state like Delaware, O'Donnell's significantly higher fundraising haul -- thanks to a massive outpouring of conservative support around the country -- and the advertising opportunities it gives her pack a significant wallop. There is some fertile ground for her: Fifty percent of voters in the Fox poll want to repeal Obamacare, 53 percent prefer a 'smaller government that provides fewer services,' and 49 percent agree that 'the federal government has gotten totally out of control and threatens our basic liberties unless we clean house and commit to drastic change.' They may not embrace the tea party, but they're not huge fans of the current status quo, either.

But what if Mike Castle decides to run as a write-in candidate? According to recent reports, Castle -- who has refused to endorse O'Donnell -- is doing polling to find out what his chances would be.  Mell notes that in diminutive Delaware, 'really a congressional district' in size, a write-in candidacy could be much more competitive than it would be in a larger state. Interestingly, a Castle write-in candidacy could help O'Donnell. New York Times poll analyst Nate Silver argues that it will be difficult for O'Donnell to nab more than about 30 percent of the vote, so a three-way race may be her best shot. O'Donnell's campaign refuses to speculate on Castle's decision. Walsh merely says that the NRSC 'firmly support[s] Christine O'Donnell.'

There are still more than five weeks left in the campaign. As O'Donnell's unexpected primary victory showed, she can be a strong campaigner, and -- this year -- almost anything is possible.

-- Katrina Trinko is an intern at National Review.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on September 27, 2010 (boomark / email).