Federal Judiciary

George LeMieux's Endorsement Dilemma -- By: Robert Costa

One hot August day, George LeMieux was a little-known 40-year-old political consultant. The next afternoon, he was appointed to represent 18 million Floridians in the United States Senate by Gov. Charlie Crist, his former boss. ?I?d describe myself as a Charlie Crist Republican,? LeMieux said then.

Eight months later, LeMieux has gotten comfy in the upper chamber, and he wants to return there soon. ?While he won?t admit it, he?s obviously planning to run for the Senate in 2012 against [Democrat] Bill Nelson,? observes Mike Thomas of the Orlando Sentinel. ?For LeMieux, going to the Senate is akin to dying and going to heaven. I have never seen someone so in love with his new life.?

But first, LeMieux must take sides in the fight for the seat he has been warming -- and the man who made him a prince, if only for a year, is one of the contenders. Crist is facing Marco Rubio, a former Florida house speaker, in the primary. The battle has been contentious, and damaging enough to Crist -- who?s losing by double digits in the polls -- that he?s considering running the rest of the race as an independent. If he does, he?ll make the Senate race a three-way contest between himself, Rubio, and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the probable Democratic nominee.

Should LeMieux support his mentor?

If he does, he?ll have some company. According to the Wall Street Journal, two of Crist?s closet GOP allies in Florida -- Miami-Dade County mayor Carlos Alvarez and state senator Mike Fasano -- said they would stand with the governor if he abandons the Republican primary. ?Regardless of whether the governor runs as a no party affiliation or as a Republican, he will win,? Fasano predicts.

Former senator Mel Martinez (R., Fla.), whose retirement last summer enabled Crist to pick LeMieux to fill out the term, tells National Review Online that he thinks LeMieux should break with Crist if the governor runs unaffiliated, and endorse Rubio. ?This is a very interesting situation,? Martinez says. ?[LeMieux?s] future depends on what he chooses to do.?

?Marco Rubio is a perfectly acceptable candidate,? Martinez adds. ?I, for one, will support the Republican nominee. I?m not going to try and fit something that doesn?t fit.? Crist, he says, ?has a pretty tough hill to climb? if he goes independent: ?I think he will find it difficult in terms of fundraising. The overwhelming number of his donors will go with the Republican.?

Martinez sees signs of a Crist-LeMieux fracture already. ?It?s interesting to note that in recent days, he and the governor broke rank politically for the first time ever, on the issue of the education-reform-bill veto in Florida,? Martinez says. ?Senator LeMieux came out and said the veto was a mistake. It reminded me of when the governor and I separated on the issue of the stimulus package last year. We were political friends, rooting for each other, but after that, we separated.?

LeMieux tells us that since he joined the GOP ranks in the Senate, his allegiance to the party has only grown stronger. Crist?s decision, he explains, will not have any impact on his political future; he says his ?work on behalf of Floridians speaks for itself.?

Such talk signals that LeMieux is in no mood to be a Crist booster. Florida Republican operatives tell us that while LeMieux may remain personally loyal to Crist, he knows the smart political move in the case of an independent run would be to bid adieu to his mentor. ?LeMieux could have a bright future, and he is well positioned for success if the right opportunity were to present itself,? says Justin Sayfie, the editor of the Sayfie Review, a Florida political journal. Jordan Raynor, a Florida-based GOP new-media consultant, agrees: ?I think a LeMieux 2012 candidacy is something Florida and Washington Republicans would be very excited about? if he continues to use his ?short stint in the U.S. Senate wisely.?

Crist claims that an independent run would be about his newfound love for the political center -- not a bad place to be in Florida. And LeMieux, a center-right Republican himself, probably sympathizes with Crist?s plight in the primary. Yet, as the man who helped to engineer Crist?s 2006 gubernatorial win, LeMieux knows that strategy could flop: Just because Crist thinks he can make a grand, centrist statement to win a coalition of centrists doesn?t mean it?ll necessarily happen.

An independent Crist would attempt to portray himself as a politician who transcends party lines when it matters most, such as when he hugged President Obama and the president? $787 billion stimulus package in February 2009. Crist may describe his cozying up to the stimulus as smart, moderate politics -- he claims it created or maintained 87,000 jobs, with 27,000 of them public-school teachers -- but it didn?t do much for the Florida economy. When Crist hugged Obama, Florida?s unemployment rate was 9.3. Since then, it has crept up significantly, and above the national average. In March, Florida?s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 12.3, the highest rate since 1970, representing a little more than 1.1 million jobless out of a labor force of 9.2 million.

?This election will be all about one thing: the economy,? says Kristen Soltis, a pollster at the Winston Group and longtime observer of Florida politics. ?Whether a candidate is labeled a Republican or an independent will certainly move voters, but what is most critical is how each candidate answers this question: How will you create jobs and turn Florida's economy around? Whoever answers this question best will have the edge in this election.? Former governor Jeb Bush already knows who that will be. He calls Crist?s support of the stimulus ?unforgivable.?

Polls say that if Crist runs as an independent, a win is anything but certain. A poll by Rasmussen shows Rubio ahead in such a scenario, with 45 percent to Meek?s 25 percent and Crist?s 22 percent, but a recent Quinnipiac survey shows Crist, Rubio, and Meek very close in a three-way race, with Crist at 32 percent, Rubio at 30 percent, and Meek at 24 percent. As Public Policy Polling points out, ?comparing Quinnipiac?s April 2009 poll to its poll this month, Crist?s approval rating has dropped 19 points with Republicans, from 68 percent to 49 percent. But it?s also dropped by 18 points with independents from 68 percent to 50 percent and by 14 points with Democrats from 66 percent to 52 percent.?

LeMieux wants to get back to the Senate in 2012, and the only way to do that is to win a GOP primary. If Crist breaks with the Republicans, LeMieux?s choice between the governor and Rubio will be a major issue in that primary. Given Rubio?s status as a Republican darling, Crist?s plummeting support among conservatives, and the many difficulties Crist will face if he runs as an independent, that choice should be obvious.

-- Robert Costa is the William F. Buckley Jr. Fellow at the National Review Institute.

EDITOR?S NOTE: This article has been amended since its initial posting.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on April 21, 2010 (boomark / email).