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My Prediction of the Outcome in Comstock

By Corey Rayburnyung

I'm probably completely wrong, but based upon the oral argument I think that this is how the Justices will vote: Roberts: Government Scalia: Comstock Thomas: Comstock Alito: Government Kennedy: Government Stevens: Government Ginsburg: Government Breyer: Government Sotomayor: Comstock I could see Kennedy or Stevens switching to Comstock, but I think the outcome is likely a 6 to 3 in favor of the government. As I have argued many times, I think Comstock has the better argument, but I think it is likely the precedents of Lopez and Morrison are about to fade into the past with a newly super-charged Necessary and Proper Clause. This is also consistent with my earlier prediction that the Justices would have to focus in on the Commerce Clause for Comstock to win and that just didn't happen.continue to full post

Full post as published by Sex Crimes on January 12, 2010 (boomark / email).