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The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

A law firm recently hired an all-star associate.  She is a terrific writer, a soldier researcher, and a great listener.  She has screwed up two consecutive assignments in a row.  What are the odds that someone who is supposed to be so good would perform so poorly? You just hired a dullard to do yeoman's work around the office.  He found two nuggets that lead to substantial trial verdicts.  Is this guy an undercover genius, or what? You're a trial lawyer who wins 80% of your cases.  You've dropped the last three in a row.  Is this a negative trend?  Have you lost your magic?  Or is something else at work? If you were like me, you'd likely not know what to do with the above problems - other than rely on "gut instinct" or some other mechanism that substitutes for actual analysis...continue to full post

Full post as published by Crime & Federalism on August 11, 2008 (boomark / email).