Bankruptcy

Next Wave of Foreclosures

By mcbride

According to a new study, which has been presented as a chart, prepared by Credit Suisse, the foreclosure tidal wave is not yet spent.  In fact, the next wave of foreclosures will last until 2012, according to this study.  ?These are the ultimate in “exploding mortgages.” The number of these recasts is relatively small right now — at about $1 billion per month — but that number is set to grow dramatically over the next few years, exceeding $8 billion per month in the fall of 2011.?

 ?Credit Suisse is using recast dates for Option ARMs and reset dates for all other loans.   As Tanta noted: “Reset” refers to a rate change. “Recast” refers to a payment change.  Resets are not a huge problem as long as interest rates stay low, but recasts could be significant.   Note that Wells Fargo expects only a small percentage of their $115 billion “pick-a-pay” Option ARM portfolio they acquired via Wachovia (originally from World Savings / Golden West) to recast by 2012 (because Golden West had very generous NegAM terms). I’m not sure how that fits with this chart.? Here are two links to the chart and related articles:  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/new-mortgage-loan-reset-recast-chart.html ; http://seekingalpha.com/article/139030-the-next-wave-of-foreclosures?source=quickread

 Michael

Full post as published by Texas Lawyer Blog on May 26, 2009 (boomark / email).