Bankruptcy

Federal Reserve Survey: Economy Stable or Improving

By ckramer

The results of the Federal Reserve?s Beige Book business survey, reported earlier this month, suggest that the U.S. economy has stabilized or begun improving.

This assessment comes from a survey of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, 11 of which reported ?signs of? and improved economic situation.

The Findings: Faint Praise?

Overall, the report isn?t exactly parade-inspiring; in fact, the anecdotal evidence provided in it may only seem positive in comparison to the dreary numbers and figures we?ve grown accustomed to seeing. For example:

• Retail sales were generally described as ?flat,? which suggests a lack of growth ? but no shrinking, either.
• Labor markets were described as ?weak.?
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank by only one percent between April and June ? a consoling number only when compared to its 6.4 percent decrease from January to March.

These are the so-called ?positive? findings of the survey, which is perhaps more an indicator of how badly the U.S. economy has been doing for a while than anything else.

The Exceptions

The Federal Reserve of St. Louis was apparently the only district that did not declare outright improvement in the economy; rather, the St. Louis district noted that the pace of economic contraction ?appears to be moderating.?

And not every economic sector showed even hints of recovery: the commercial real estate market is apparently still suffering ?very low levels? of construction and continued weak demand for space.

What About Unemployment?

The economy?s gradual recovery is expected to be tough on those looking for work, according to the opinions of several economists. Many are predicting peaks in unemployment in the next few months and slow returns to pre-recession levels.

Indeed, the most recent release of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that job openings in the U.S. have dropped by 2.4 million, a 50 percent decrease since June 2007.

These numbers have remained fairly consistent for the past several months, and show no indications of drastically changing in the near future.

And of course, the number of Americans filing bankruptcy shows little sign of slowing down, with figures from August, 2009, slightly below July’s high and well above last year.

Additional Resources

Federal Reserve: Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions (PDF)
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Job Openings Report (9/9/09) (PDF)

Full post as published by The Bankruptcy Blog on September 13, 2009 (boomark / email).