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: Calculated Risk

"Another missed opportunity for Europe?"

By Anonymous

From Landon Thomas at the NY Times: E.U.'s Latest Rescue Package Seen Falling Short-Again

Europe?s leaders cobbled together a new structure over the weekend that will allow its rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to disburse its entire ?440 billion, or $615 billion, allotment if needed, and to buy bonds at government auctions. They also eased the conditions on Greece?s rescue loans by reducing interest rates and extending repayment terms.

But the EFSF can only buy bonds for countries that have taken bailout funds (Greece and Ireland). This leave Portugal out ... unless they ask for a bailout.

And this is just buying time. Landon concludes:

In 2013, for example, Greece?s debt will have increased to almost 160 percent of G.D.P. ... by 2014 it must begin paying interest equivalent to about 8 percent of its G.D.P. ? a huge amount by any measure.

For now, Greece has time. But with growth expected to shrink again this year, by 3.4 percent, and with unemployment now at about 15 percent, how long the Greek government, or any government for that matter, can continue to expect so much public sacrifice to pay off its bankers remains to be seen.

Just buying time for now.

Full post as published by Calculated Risk on March 14, 2011 (boomark / email).