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: Calculated Risk

Case Shiller House Prices: Which cities will hit post bubble lows next?

By Anonymous

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In the S&P/Case-Shiller report for October, S&P noted:

[S]ix markets ? Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa ? hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007

S&P reports the data Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) because of concerns about foreclosures impacting the seasonal factor.

Using the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) series, eleven cities were at post bubble lows; the six cities listed above plus Phoenix, Chicago, Detroit, New York and Las Vegas.

The following graph shows the percent above the post bubble lows for the 20 Case-Shiller cities and the two composite indexes using both SA and NSA data.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Las Vegas was slightly above the post bubble low NSA (it isn't apparent on the graph).

We can probably guess the cities that will set new post bubble lows in November. Using the NSA data, Las Vegas, New York and Detroit will all probably join the list above setting new lows.

Using the SA data, Dallas, Cleveland, Denver, and maybe the Composite 20 index will be at new lows.

Note: Earlier I posted A few for Graphs for 2010. Enjoy!

Full post as published by Calculated Risk on December 29, 2010 (boomark / email).