Academic

Obama Forecasting

By Calvin Massey

I do not usually delve into the business of political advice or forecasting, as my expertise is constitutional law, not politics (though there is a great deal of overlap between politics and constitutional law -- some say constitutional law is just politics in a different dialect).  But I can't resist offering a few thoughts about the governance direction of the Obama administration.  Democrats appear to be internally divided on the question of whether to read the election returns as a mandate for rapid change to the left or as a mandate for a more measured and bipartisan change to the center.  Today's New York Times offers a delicious range of views on this question.  Paul Krugman urges the aggressive leftist course, for example.   Alan Ehrenhalt reviews the failures of Carter and Clinton and suggests that Obama may be more adept than his Democratic predecessors.   Conservative columnist William Kristol reminds the right that President Obama will be a formidable adversary, but welcomes the challenge. 

Obama has a quandary.  If he governs as an aggressive leftist he will preserve fervent support from the Democratic left but will promptly alienate the center that elected him.  That will likely produce gains for the GOP in 2010 and might produce a one-term presidency.  Can you envision Bobby Jindal beating Barack Obama in 2012?  Not totally out of the question.  If Obama governs from the center his adoring base will become disaffected -- some more than others -- but to the extent he reaches out to Senate Republicans he can enact legislation without fear of a filibuster.  A pragmatic but shrewd somewhat left-of-center Obama administration may be much harder for Republicans to defeat -- either in mid-term elections or in 2012.   Democrats who yearn for a fast, hard left turn may be wishing for a fall.  Republicans who hope that Obama will reach out to them and govern as a centrist may find themselves in the wilderness for as long as the Israelites wandered through Sinai after fleeing Egypt.  Be careful what you wish for.   

Full post as published by The Faculty Lounge on November 10, 2008 (boomark / email).