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Lies, Damn Lies, and Polling Data

By Calvin Massey

The latest New York Times/CBS poll shows a very substantial majority of Americans approve of Barack Obama's presidency and, according to the Times, he "is benefiting from remarkably high levels of optimism and confidence among Americans about his leadership."  True enough.  Sixty-three percent of respondents approved of his handling of the presidency and seventy-seven percent are optimistic about the Obama presidency.  Yet, if one looks at the change in certain measures of approval, a somewhat different trend emerges. As compared to the prior such poll, taken a bit over two weeks ago, the net approval rating for Obama has declined by six points;  net approval of Obama's handling of the economy is also off by six points.  Yet, net approval of his handling of foreign policy is up by five points.  Though 77% of respondents are optimistic about the Obama presidency the net decline in optimism (from a poll taken just prior to the inauguration) is four points.  Confidence in Obama's ability to make the right decisions about the economy has also slipped.  Respondents who were very or somewhat confident slipped by six points; those who were "not too confident" or "not at all confident" increased by eight points (as compared to the pre-inauguration poll).  Indeed there is lots of support for and optimism about the Obama presidency, though there are signs of slippage. Perhaps most ominous for the Obama administration is that 75% of respondents think that the administration should make "real progress' on "fixing the antion's economy" within 4 years.  if this turns into a major and prolonged economic slump the Obama presidency may have some difficulty come re-election.  Too soon to tell.   Here are the polling data.  

Full post as published by The Faculty Lounge on February 23, 2009 (boomark / email).