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We Prognosticate the Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 against the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV (45), based on NAYPPA Stats

By Andis Kaulins

We read with some astonishment that the upstart Green Bay Packers are currently favored by the professional oddsmakers over the Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 1/2 viz. 3 points for the upcoming 45th NFL Super Bowl at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington (Dallas-Fort Worth), Texas on Sunday, February 6, 2011, kickoff ca. 5:25 pm CST.

From the NFL stats we find that:

In the regular season the Packers averaged 5.7 ypp (yards per play) on offense
In the regular season the Steelers averaged 5.6 ypp on offense
In the regular season the Packers averaged 5.1 ypp on defense
In the regular season the Steelers averaged 4.5 ypp on defense (best in the NFL)

Those stats make the Steelers a ca. five-point favorite in our book because of an 0.5 advantage in net average yards per play advantage (NAYPPA - a parameter we used in 2008/2009). Of course, we make no guarantees or warranties of any kind about the game outcome at all -- so do not under any circumstances rely on our prognostications for betting purposes since our predictions are made in good fun only -- may the best team win!

By the way:
In the playoffs the Packers have averaged 5.7 ypp on offense
In the playoffs the Steelers have averaged 4.1 ypp on offense
In the playoffs the Packers have averaged 4.9 ypp on defense
In the playoffs the Steelers have averaged 3.8 ypp on defense (virtually unbeatable).

The big games are decided by defense and that is why we -- again -- give the edge to the Steel Curtain.

Full post as published by LawPundit on January 24, 2011 (boomark / email).