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The electoral college virus (continued)

By Jack M. Balkin

I note a post of mine from a couple of weeks ago, on how the "electoral college virus" is worming its way into the Democratic primary process. Well, wouldn't you know: Evan Bayh, according to today's New York Times, told CNN that ?[W]ho carried the states with the most Electoral College votes is an important factor to consider because ultimately, that?s how we choose the president of the United States." The Times helpfully ends its story with the following: [In 2000] Mrs. Clinton, who had just been elected to the Senate, said,?I believe strongly that in a democracy, we should respect the will of the people and to me, that means it?s time to do away with the Electoral College and move to the popular election of our president.? I guess she has changed her mind on this.

Even if one doesn't loathe the electoral college, as I do (and Clinton used to),

one might note that the most important fallacy of the Clinton argument is that they are not in the least differentiating among states a) that any Democrat will carry; b) that Clinton but not Obama will carry; c) that Obama and not Clinton will carry; and d) that no Democrat can win. One would place California and New York clearly in category one, Texas and Wyoming just as clearly in category d (at least in 2008). So the only interesting categories are b) and c). It's conceivable that only Clinton can carry Ohio, given her appeal to older white men who really can't imagine, when all is said, voting for a non-white (what we might call the "Rendell Democratics," given the Pennsylvania Governor's expression of doubt that a non-white can be elected). But I think it's equally conceivable that only Obama could carry Virginia (a near-certainty) and several of the mid-Western states, including Iowa. And if John Edwards will ever stop sulking, and if those unions who have endorsed Obama, including the Teamsters, rally their supporters and members and point to McCain's total lack of doubt about NAFTA, I don't see that Ohio is out of play.

This is, alas, just one more example of wholly meretricious argument by supporters of Hillary's candidacy. But, hey, any port in a storm....

Full post as published by Balkinization on March 24, 2008 (boomark / email).