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: Calculated Risk

Negative News Flow

By Anonymous

Although not unexpected, the news flow is about to take a more negative tone starting with the existing home sales report on August 23rd. We've been discussing this for some time ... and I'd like to highlight just a few pieces of forthcoming data:

The existing home sales report will show that sales collapsed in July (this is showing up in all the regional reports).

The existing home months-of-supply will jump to double digits.

House prices are probably falling again, although this might not show up in the repeat sales indexes until September or October (this data is released with a lag).

On August 27th, the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released. This will probably show a significant downward revision from the preliminary estimate of 2.4% annualized growth. The downward revision is due to lower construction spending than the BEA initially estimated, less contribution from inventory adjustments, and the June surge in exports.

The unemployment rate will probably start ticking up again soon (or the participation rate will fall further).

Just something to be aware of ...

Full post as published by Calculated Risk on August 14, 2010 (boomark / email).

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