Legal Commentary

The Risks And Potential Rewards Of An Obama GE Candidacy

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

I favor Barack Obama in this contest because I see no substantive differences on the issues meaningful to me (others see such differences, it is due to their taking meaning in differences I do not find meaning in) and because I find Obama more electable than Clinton (mostly because of how each is perceived and treated by the Media and existing negative baggage (unfair baggage no doubt) for Clinton.) Obama is also an electoral map changer in the West, where Democrats can make real short and medium term gains (as opposed to the South.) The one worry on that front is his weakness with Latinos.

Ron Brownstein reports on these electoral differences:

With the general election choice still so unformed for voters, the trends are not consistent across all surveys. Still, the emerging picture indicates that against McCain, Obama might cast a wider net than Clinton, but also need to plug more leaks in his boat.

. . . [M]any Democrats think Obama offers greater potential rewards as a nominee, but also presents greater risks. If Obama runs well, he seems more likely than Clinton to assemble a big majority and trigger a Democratic sweep -- not only by attracting independents and crossover Republicans but also by increasing turnout among African-Americans and young people.

But if Obama stumbles, he could face a greater danger of fracturing the traditional Democratic coalition by losing seniors and blue-collar whites to McCain, principally on security issues. Clinton's reach across the electorate may not be as long, but her grip on her voters could be firmer.

The larger point is that each of these talented candidates continues to display stubborn electoral vulnerabilities that the other might reduce. That's why talk of their running together is likely to continue no matter how much they bruise each other in the grueling and probably inconclusive weeks ahead.

I say yep to every point Brownstein makes here. My choice is to roll the dice with Obama and go for the bigger victory. Clinton is no guarantee. Neither is Obama. But Obama's potential reward is greater. Still, the best ticket is the so-called "Dream Ticket." Obama-Clinton.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on March 14, 2008 (boomark / email).