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Rasmussen: Hillary Leads in PA, 51% to 38%

By Jeralyn

Yesterday's Rasmussen poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 51% to 38%.

Clinton now leads by twenty-five percentage points among women and is essentially even among men. She attracts votes from 69% of white women while also leading among voters over 40 and those with incomes under $75,000 a year. Obama leads 79% to 13% among African-American voters.

Also yesterday, Rasmussen did a PA poll that showed McCain ahead by a statistically insignificant margin against both Obama and Hillary. But,

In Pennsylvania, McCain leads both Democrats by double digits among men and trails both by double digits among women. The gap is wider if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of voters in the state, Obama by 53%, and Clinton by 45%. For Obama, that figure reflects a ten-point decline from last month. In that previous poll, conducted at the height of Obamamania, the Senator from Illinois had a ten-point lead over McCain.

More...

In 2004, John Kerry won the general election with 51% of the vote, almost 3 million out of 6 million votes.

In the 2004 PA primary, 789,000 voted.

Question for number crunchers out there: How much does Hillary have to win Pennsylvania by to beat Obama in the national popular vote total? Does it even matter, so long as she wins PA? With PA, if she wins CA, NY, Ohio, MA, NJ and FL, won't the superdelegates say she has a better chance of winning in November?

On a related note, a TalkLeft reader says, as of 3/12/08:

When you re-tally the votes of only self identified Dems (from CNN exit polling), and using Rear Clear Politic’s reported votes by state, the following is the breakdown of votes by Democrats for Obama and Hillary.

The reader's calculations:

Popular Vote Total:
* Total Dems 19,067,662
* Clinton Dems 9,508,926
* Obama Dems 9,027,622
* Hillary Over Obama 481,307

Popular Vote Total (w/FL)
* Total Dems 20,210,950
* Clinton Dems 10,103,436
* Obama Dems 9,427,773
* Hillary Over Obama 713,010

Total Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)
* Total Dems 20,680,081
* Clinton Dems 10,384,915
* Obama Dems 9,596,660
* Hillary Over Obama 825,601

Thoughts?

Full post as published by TalkLeft on March 14, 2008 (boomark / email).