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Understanding Politics And How To Read A Poll

By Big Tent Democrat

The Media will tell you today that according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll, 64% of Americans support AZ SB 1070. What does this mean? I venture to say nothing. They May also tell you that 70% of Hispanics oppose the law. What does this mean. A whole hell of a lot. I discussed this earlier, but asking a question does not tell you what the political impact of the answer really is. Let's look at the poll (PDF):

Q. 11 [W]hich one of the following stories that have been covered by news organizations in the last few weeks is of most concern to you personally?

The Gulf Coast oil spill.............. 38
The attempted terrorist attack in Times Square, New York ... 31
New immigration legislation passed in Arizona ..... 19
The criminal investigation into Goldman Sachs ...................... 8
Florida Governor Charlie Crist changing parties ........................................ 1
None of these........................... 2

(Emphasis supplied.) Starting to get the picture? More . . .

11% of the total respondent in the poll are Hispanics. They were asked the following:

(ASKED OF HISPANIC/LATINOS ONLY) L1 Which party do you think would do a better job--(Read Item) the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, both about the same, or neither? (RANDOMIZE)

Protecting the interests of minorities [D +37]

Representing the opportunity to move up the economic ladder D- +11

Working for the equality of and protecting against discrimination of immigrants [D-+42]
Dealing with immigration [D-+28]

On the Arizona bill and immigration generally:

Q34 [. . .] Do you support or oppose this law?

64% of all Americans strongly support the law. 70% of Hispanics oppose, including 58% strongly opposing it. More:

Q35 How likely do you think it is that the decision in Arizona to promote strong enforcement of immigrants who are NOT in the U.S. legally will lead to discrimination of Hispanic or Latino immigrants who ARE in the U.S. legally?

66% of all Americans think this is likely. 82% of Hispanics think this is likely, with 61% thinking it is very likely.

Unfortunately the polling does not provide us with cross tabs, but I intuit that of the 19% who have followed the AZ SB 1070 issue closely, most of the 11% of the sample that are Hispanics are in that group. And they are the group most likely to have their political views affected by it. And who will vote for one party or other because of it.

This is how politics works - by winning votes. AZ SB 1070 is a dead political loser for the GOP. Maybe not yet in Arizona, but certainly across the country. And this will magnify as time goes by. See, e.g., Prop 187 in California.

Speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 13, 2010 (boomark / email).