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John Kasich's Uphill Crawl to the Governor's Office; Win Would Upset Longstanding Ohio GOP Pattern

By The Pullins Group LLC

There is an interesting pattern in Ohio Republican politics concerning elections for Governor.  And if John Kasich were to win this year, he would break a trend that has existed since 1920.

Every successful Republican race for Governor after 1920 has included a nominee that either had previously held statewide office, run for statewide office unsuccessfully, or both.  Here are the facts and figures:

In 1928 Myers Cooper ran successfully for Governor.  He had previously run unsuccessfully for Governor in 1926.

John W. Bricker was elected to the first of his three two-year terms in 1938.  He had previously served as Ohio's Attorney General.

Thomas J. Herbert was elected Governor in the Republican landslide of 1946.  He had previously served as Ohio's Attorney General.

C. William O'Neill was elected Governor for a single two year term in 1956.  He had also previously served as Ohio's Attorney General.

Jim Rhodes ran successfully for Governor for the first time in 1962.  But this was after successfully being elected State Auditor in 1952 and losing the governor's race in 1954.

George Voinovich, who was elected governor in 1990, had run successfully as Lt. Governor in 1978.  He had also lost a race for the United States Senate in 1988.

Bob Taft was elected Governor in 1998.  He had run unsuccessfully for Lt. Governor in 1986.  He was successfully elected and re-elected Secretary of State in 1990 and 1994.

If John Kasich were to be elected in 2010, he would be the first GOP nominee since Harry L. Davis in 1920 to do so without either holding statewide office or running unsuccessfully for statewide office previously.  In fact, John Kasich is one of the few GOP nominees since 1920 not to have either held or run for statewide office previously. 

Those unsuccessful nominees included Clarence J. Brown Jr. in 1982 and Charles Taft in 1952.  Both of these gentlemen were members of powerful political families in Ohio.

John Kasich's fundamental problem in 2010 is that voters haven't heard of him and/or don't know much about him.  Candidates for statewide office in Ohio, with its unique seven major media markets, obtain needed name identification by either running statewide or by running expensive television campaigns, or both.

John Kasich has never run statewide before in Ohio and incumbent Governor Ted Strickland started today with a campaign ad blasting Kasich's record.  Strickland can do this because he still has a $2 million advantage in cash on hand from his fundraising. 

If Kasich is to overcome this historic trend, he must do so by going on the air now, and staying on the air longer and harder than Strickland.  Kasich must introduce himself to voters and define himself before Strickland is able to do so in a negative way.  If not history will likely repeat itself.

Full post as published by The Pullins Report on May 04, 2010 (boomark / email).