Legal Commentary

Why Obama Does Not Want ReVotes In Florida and Michigan

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

There are some who hold the view that Barack Obama will welcome revote primaries in Florida and Michigan. I think that view defies common sense. I'll explain why on the flip.

First, Hillary Clinton's narrative to the Superdelegates is that Obama can not win the big contested states critical in the general election. No states better fit the bill than Florida and Michigan (along with Ohio.) These have been the battlegrounds for the past two elections. The GOP has "won" 2 out of 3 twice and secured the Presidency that way. In order to make that case, Clinton will of course want to win contested primaries in both Florida and Michigan. The perception is she won uncontested primaries. By having revotes, she can make it plain that she is the one who will win them.

Second, Hillary needs to focus on the popular vote totals, a contest she can take the lead in, unlike the pledged delegate race. She needs a "will of the people" argument, and the popular vote fills that bill. Right now, Florida and Michigan are not truly being considered in the popular vote calculation. Revotes will cause that they be considered.

Third, Hillary is actually likely to do much better in revotes. Why? Because John Edwards is now out of the race. Hillary will win the lion's share of his votes. In Florida, Edwards captured 14%, or 249,000 votes. Hillary will get most of those. She is likely to do even better in the popular vote and pledged delegate counts in a revote.

Fourth, momentum, perception and wins. Winning big states closer to the decision time for super delegates helps Hillary with the psychology of the super delegates. Suppose Hillary finishes up winning Puerto Rico, Florida and Michigan gaining a net advantage of close to 100 delegates and say close to a million votes in the popular vote. That will be the LAST bit of data that the super delegates will see. If Hillary has a plausible narrative in terms of why she is more electable (the big contested state narrative), a plausible "will of the people" argument (the popular vote lead), and the last big wins in the contest (momentum), she will have a very credible case to make and a very credible chance to win the nomination.

So why would Obama not want all this? This question is how could he possibly want ANY of it? And the one answer is this -- it will help him in the general election in Michigan and Florida. I believe that if this is not done, he will have no chance in those two states. If Obama could build a plausible narrative for not counting Florida and Michigan, he would use it. But that train has left the station. He has no choice, imo, but to put a good face on it and fight like crazy to keep Hillary from winning big in both states.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on March 10, 2008 (boomark / email).