Federal Judiciary

Bad Day for Bart -- By: Jim Geraghty

He hasn?t won less than 66 percent of the vote since 2000. Larry Sabato?s Crystal Ball hasn?t yet written anything about Stupak?s reelection bid in Michigan?s 1st congressional district, and Cook Political Report still ranks the race ?Solid Democrat.? Yes, Stupak?s district ranks as the 208th most Republican House seat out of 435, and was seen as a Republican-leaning one that Obama narrowly carried in 2008. But Stupak seemed a perfect match for this sprawling, largely rural district. Michael Barone?s Almanac of American Politics describes it as follows: ?Starting in the 1840s, immigrants flocked here to work in the mines: Irish, Italians, Swedes, Norwegians, miners? sons from Wales and Cornwall, and most prominently Finns, who must have found this cold land with its lakes and hills much like home. Many were Roman Catholic, and they remain predominantly anti-abortion.? It is, geographically, the second-largest district east of the Mississippi, and Marquette, with 21,000 people, is the largest city in the district. A congressman like Stupak -- an economically liberal pro-life Catholic, a former police officer injured in the line of duty -- would, ordinarily, serve until retirement.

But all of that conventional wisdom changes, now that the dramatic end to the fight over the health-care bill transformed one of the most prominent pro-life Democrats into a man without a country -- disdained by national Democrats and pro-choice liberals as a man who nearly derailed health care, and rejected by pro-lifers on both sides of the aisle as a supremely disappointing leader who quit at the last minute.

As recently as Saturday, pro-Obamacare protesters marched outside Stupak?s district offices, charging that he had ?broken their heart.? Loretta Herman, the secretary of the Alger County Democratic party, tore into him in the style one is more used to hearing used on Republicans: ?He says he?s pro-life, but he only seems to care about the unborn. People say he cares about children, but he?s not -- not once they?re born.? About a week earlier, Stupak accused other Democrats of justifying federal funding of abortion as a cost-control measure, a strikingly ghoulish logic that most pro-choice lawmakers rarely, if ever, articulated in public. That he would end up voting the same way as Rep. Diana DeGette (D., Colo.), co-chair of the Pro-Choice Caucus, seemed unthinkable.

Stupak said his constituency was split about evenly, in support of and opposition to the health-care overhaul. Many considered his vote the most surprising one for Obamacare. But a GOP consultant in Washington who works with Michigan Republicans says that there were some signals: ?There was an expectation that he was going to flip. More than two weeks before the vote, what few Republicans were in the Michigan caucus and the broader GOP pro-life and conservative caucuses were focused on keeping him close and doing what they could to buttress support for him. Maybe people I talk to were being pessimistic, or just realistic, but they had a sense this thing was done on Friday afternoon, and that it was only a matter of when that they would lose Stupak.?

Duplicity? Naïveté? A failure of nerve? Whatever the reasoning behind Stupak?s unexpected decision, it opened up a question one rarely hears about a nine-term incumbent: Who is this guy?

At least four Republicans seek to replace Stupak. A great deal of buzz has suddenly surrounded Dan Benishek, a general surgeon whose campaign debuted as a Free Republic post in February. He?ll face pro bono attorney Linda Goldthorpe, former trucking-company executive Don Hooper, and Cheboygan County drain commissioner Dennis Lennox. Lennox is a veteran conservative activist, and his campaign touts the fact that he was only one of two Republican challengers in all of Michigan to defeat an incumbent Democrat at the county-wide or higher levels in 2008, a thoroughly miserable year for the GOP in this state.

A Washington Republican who is closely watching developments in the state thinks more challengers may yet appear; other Michigan Republicans in office are eager to find the right candidate, and are examining ?term-limited state senators.? The lawmakers who fit that description in Michigan?s 1st district include Jason Allen of Traverse City, Tony Stamas of Midland, and Michelle McManus of Lake Leelanau (currently running for secretary of state). The filing deadline for federal office in Michigan is May 11.

?Tough district, but not many people want a sellout for a congressman,? concludes this Washington Republican. ?He voted with Pelosi and against his district and he is going to have to defend that vote.?

?Stupak is now really in a tough spot,? says Fred Wszolek, a veteran GOP consultant who just signed on with Benishek. ?He?s in a strongly conservative, pro-life district and his only real connection was on cultural issues. But he infuriated the Left on the way to infuriating the Right. It?s hard to see who his base now is. Where he ended up on this issue was a big problem for him, but the way he got there was just incomprehensible. . . . I think Stupak is really toast this time.?

The primary isn?t until August, and Stupak will face a primary challenge from former Charlevoix County commissioner Connie Saltonstall. Unsurprisingly, the National Organization for Women Political Action Committee endorsed her, and she has already raised more than $73,000 through ActBlue. Stupak?s ?yes? vote did little to mollify his challenger: ?Representative Stupak?s support has come at a very high cost,? she said after Stupak voted yes. ?[His] dogmatic insistence on inserting his own religious views into the legislative debate and threatening to deprive his constituents of needed health-care reform has eroded people?s trust in him. Throughout this debate there is the sense that our congressman has let us down.?

Stupak could ultimately win reelection, but a road that once looked smooth is suddenly laden with obstacles. At the top of the ballot in the state is a gubernatorial race that has attracted a plethora of candidates from both parties. Stupak probably won?t be able to count on a big Democratic turnout to help him across the finish line; the leading candidates on the Republican side, Rep. Pete Hoekstra and state attorney general Mike Cox, are consistently leading the Democratic candidates by wide margins.

Of course, Michigan?s miserable economic conditions make political forecasts a bit more volatile. The GOP consultant who detected early doubts about Stupak chuckles, ?Given the level of residents fleeing the state due to unemployment, I find it quaint that you believe there will be enough people in the state by November to actually punch a ballot.?

-- Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot on NRO.

Full post as published by Bench Memos - National Review Online on March 25, 2010 (boomark / email).