Legal Commentary

The Electoral Map

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

The new World's Greatest Pollster, SUSA, released its 50 state electoral maps today. Kos has a good discussion of the results, which show both Clinton and Obama garnering narrow victories over McCain.

My own thoughts are that while there are some incredible results, no way McCain wins New Jersey against either Clinton or Obama for example, it does demonstrate some basic points. First, while Obama clearly expands the electoral playing field, he also is the bigger risk in key battleground states. There is more risk and more potential reward with Obama as the nominee.

Clinton is clearly stronger, imo, in the big battleground states and she clearly flips Arkansas. Obama in most Western states. This is tied in part to the demographic makeup of their support and Hillary longstanding baggage. Because Obama will be better treated by the Media, he could expand the map. He could also get wiped out.

If Obama can prove some big state strength in PA or in a revoted FL or MI, then his superiority is proven and he will have earned the nomination. If he does not, then Clinton will have a chance to make her case.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on March 06, 2008 (boomark / email).