Politics

No, We Can't

By Matt Cooper

What happened last night was not just the political resurrection of Hillary Clinton--how many Clinton resurrections have we witnessed in the last 16 years?-- but a huge role reversal. Now, Clinton, instead of defending the vagaries of the Superdelegate rules, is the one arguing that the people should decide the election, that the people should be heard. Now Obama instead of being about Hope is all about math. His people are reduced to arguing math and bylaws: She can't win. The delegates aren't there. Look at the rules. We have more superdelegates coming. If they're not careful, they're going to lose the change mantle along with hope, too.

I think in the long run the tide is still with Obama because of the prosaic math and because it's too hard to put all those crowds, all that enthusiasm, back in the bottle with a big "No, you can't." But the Obama campaign is clearly rattled for the first time. They don't have anything to say about the trial of Chicago financier Tony Rezko. They fumbled this Austan Goolsbee Meets the Canadians episode over NAFTA. (Sounds like a Mike Myers movie.) They are now about arguing math instead of change. The tide is with them, still. But Clinton did a lot last night. Pennsylvania's demographics are like Ohio's and just as she had a popular governor in Ted Strickland helping her the past two weeks, she now has Ed Rendell, more bruised, but still well liked and a force of nature. If she wins there, she certainly has a moral claim on the nomination. My spouse, as I always note, works for Clinton. She heads the advertising effort and at least one of those ads, the phone one, seems to have helped. For the first time, the Clintonites seem to have taken the experience argument and made it work for them instead of it being an albatross.

If I were Obama, I'd stop arguing it's over and say, "Okay, let's keep this discussion going." (It's gonna keep going anyway.) You're still the candidate of the past. You still supported NAFTA and voted for the war. He should show he's tough enough on national security by finding some issue where he can get to the right of her. (Putin? Kosovo?) The more people see Obama the more they'll probably like him. So roll with it. This election isn't over and whining about superdelegates and math won't help.

Full post as published by Portfolio.com: Capital on March 04, 2008 (boomark / email).