Legal Commentary

NFL Playoffs - Predictions and NAYPPA - Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage for all National Football League Teams

By Andis Kaulins

NFL Playoff Games thus far:

Arizona Cardinals 9.3 ypp offense, 7.4 ypp defense (vs. Green Bay Packers) - NAYPPA +1.9
New York Jets 6.3 ypp offense, 4.6 ypp defense (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) - NAYPPA +1.7
Baltimore Ravens 4.3 ypp offense, 3.1 ypp defense (vs. New England Patriots) - NAYPPA +1.2
Dallas Cowboys 5.9 ypp offense, 6.1 ypp defense (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) - NAYPPA -0.2

Rank of Teams that made the Playoffs (regular season stats)

1. Dallas Cowboys 6.3 ypp offense, 5.2 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +1.1
2. Green Bay Packers 5.8 ypp offense, 4.8 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +1.0 eliminated
3. Indianapolis Colts 5.9 ypp offense, 5.0 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.9
4. Philadelphia Eagles 5.9 ypp offense, 5.0 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.9 eliminated
5. New York Jets 5.0 ypp offense, 4.2 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.8
6. New Orleans Saints 6.3 ypp offense, 5.5 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.8
7. Baltimore Ravens 5.5 ypp offense, 4.9 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.6
8. Minnesota Vikings 5.8 ypp offense, 5.2 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.6
9. San Diego Chargers 5.9 ypp offense, 5.3 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.6
10. New England Patriots 5.9 ypp offense, 5.4 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.5 eliminated
11. Arizona Cardinals 5.6 ypp offense, 5.3 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.3
12. Cincinnati Bengals 4.9 ypp offense, 4.9 ypp defense - NAYPPA = 0.0 eliminated

NAYPPA of Teams that did not make the Playoffs (regular season stats)

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 5.9 ypp offense, 5.1 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.8
(The Steelers coasted in midseason and lost 5 straight games, in part to the weakest of opponents, to put themselves out of playoffs in which they should clearly have played, being one of the strongest teams in the NFL.)
2. Houston Texans 5.9 ypp offense, 5.3 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.6
3. Denver Broncos 5.3 ypp offense, 5.0 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.3
4. New York Giants 5.8 ypp offense, 5.5 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.3
5. Washington Redskins 5.2 ypp offense, 5.1 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.1
6. Tennessee Titans 5.7 ypp offense, 5.6 ypp defense - NAYPPA = +0.1
7. San Francisco 49ers 5.0 ypp offense, 5.0 ypp defense - NAYPPA = 0.0
8. Carolina Panthers 5.2 ypp offense, 5.2 ypp defense - NAYPPA = 0.0
9. Chicago Bears 5.1 ypp offense, 5.2 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -0.1
10. Buffalo Bills 4.8 ypp offense, 5.0 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -0.2
11. Atlanta Falcons 5.2 ypp offense, 5.6 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -0.4
12. Jacksonville Jaguars 5.3 ypp offense, 5.7 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -0.4
13. Seattle Seahawks 4.9 ypp offense, 5.6 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -0.7
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.8 ypp offense, 5.6 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -0.8
15. Miami Dolphins 5.0 ypp offense, 5.8 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -0.8
16. Kansas City Chiefs 4.8 ypp offense, 5.8 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -1.0
17. Oakland Raiders 4.5 ypp offense, 5.7 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -1.2
18. St. Louis Rams 4.5 ypp offense, 5.9 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -1.4
19. Cleveland Browns 4.3 ypp offense, 5.8 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -1.5
20. Detroit Lions 4.6 ypp offense, 6.1 ypp defense - NAYPPA = -1.5

Playoff Game Predictions

Arizona at New Orleans - the Saints are favored by 7 points but have the worst defense of all playoff teams, so that if Kurt Warner is on target, the Cardinals should win. We call it for Arizona 41-38.

Indianapolis is favored at home by 7 points. YPPSYS stats give a slight edge over Baltimore according to the stats, but the Colts will struggle with the Baltimore defense. We call it for the Ravens 20-17 over the Colts.

Dallas plays at Minnesota in a game in which the Vikings are favored by 3 points. NAYPPA stats favor the Cowboys who have the best NAYPPA in the NFL and are thus our favorites to win the Super Bowl this year. We call it for Dallas 31-27.

The San Diego Chargers are favored at home by 9 points over the New York Jets, but NAYPPA stats favor New York by 2 points, not counting any home field advantage. It could go either way but we call it 20-17 for the Jets, who have the best ypp defense in the NFL according to NAYPPA, but have only a weak offense, so the offense has to pick up in this game.

Full post as published by LawPundit on January 15, 2010 (boomark / email).