Legal Commentary

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 19, 2009, Saturday

1. New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, NM, Fresno State vs. Wyoming, 4:30 pm (read preview from The Sportmeisters at BleacherReport.com) and this article about Wyoming at Rivals.com.)

At YPPSYS, the Bulldogs (YPPSYS rating -1.9) rank 66th and the Cowboys (YPPSYS rating -3.1) rank 99th, which makes Fresno State the favorite by 10.8 points (-3.1 - -1.9 = 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 points. The opening line favored the Bulldogs by 13, but the current line is 11 points, virtually the same as our own stats. Wyoming scored 10.4 points less than opponents due to a weak offense this season, a surprising result when one considers the credentials of first year head coach Dave Christensen, who did great things as offensive coordinator the previous season at Missouri. Pat Hill is a successful if also controversial head coach in Fresno who was expected to bring Fresno State into the top national rankings, but this has not happened.
Our call: Wyoming will struggle with the Fresno State running attack so it is a question of how much offense they can sustain themselves. We call it for Fresno State 44-34.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Full post as published by LawPundit on December 17, 2009 (boomark / email).