Legal Commentary

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 19, 2009, Saturday

2. St. Petersburg Bowl, Rutgers vs. UCF, St. Petersburg, FL, 8:00 pm

Scarlet Knights vs. Knights - a rare football joust between teams rated 49th and 52nd by YPPSYS, giving Rutgers a .1 x x 9 = .9 points advantage. The Scarlet Knights averaged a MOV of 10.1 to 5.6 for UCF for a MOV favoring Rutgers by 4.5, but the adjustment for YPPSYS schedule difficulty is -.6 rating points x 9 = 5.4 giving the advantage to UCF by .9 points, so that the YPPSYS II rating exactly offsets the YPPSYS I rating, which makes this game dead even on paper.

UCF has the stouter running defense and the weaker passing defense (112th nationally). The heralded offensive line at Rutgers has not lived up to expectations this year and Rutgers is not likely to run the ball well against UCF.

As for the passing game, the Scarlet Knights' freshman QB Tom Savage has a very low quarterback rating of 82.5 and is facing a strong pass rush. If Case Keenum and Houston could not beat UCF, then Rutgers will be hard pressed to do so.

Our call: Rutgers opened as a 4-point favorite and the line is now 3 points.
We call this game 21-20 for UCF, thinking that playing in Florida will give them nearly a home field advantage.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Full post as published by LawPundit on December 17, 2009 (boomark / email).