Legal Commentary

Why Polling TX And OH Is Difficult

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Polls are all over the place in both Texas and Ohio and polling is NEVER an exact science. But I think extra caution is in order for Texas and Ohio. Why? Because of the demographic split. After Obama's sweeping win in Wisconsin, where he truly eroded Clinton base for the first time, we seem to have settled back into the old breakdowns - Clinton winning whites, women, Latinos, seniors and lower earning voters. Obama winning African Americans overwhelmingly, young voters, men and upper income voters. The margins appears fairly static.

This means the key issue now is who comes out to vote and in what numbers. Each pollster's turnout model will dictate their results. Since predicting who will turnout - the likely voter screen - is always the most difficult part of polling, I think it is fair to say we, and THEY, are all guessing.

At this point, no result will surprise me.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 29, 2008 (boomark / email).