Legal Commentary

Delegate Narratives

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

I sometimes wonder if I am watching the same election as some people. While it seems clear that the main function of the Left blogs these days is to make fun of the Clinton campaign, I expect some people to have a better sense of the Clinton argument. Some one like Marc Ambinder. But this tells me he is not straying from the Left blog role:

Using delegate projection software created by Matt Vogel, I ran a scenario yesterday showing how tough it will be for Hillary Clinton to catch up to Barack Obama's earned delegate lead.

[L]et's go state-by-state, again assuming that the full sanctions levied by the DNC are kept in place.

Ohio: Clinton wins by 4% and earns a net of 5 delegates
Texas: Obama wins by a net of 8% and earns a net of 15 delegates including those taken from the caucus portion of the contests

. . . So -- under these most rosy of scenarios -- since March 4, she'll have earned 520 delegates to Barack Obama's 461, having reduced his earned delegate total by about 80 ... and be that much closer to 2025.

Wow! I wonder if Ambinder has been listening. Clinton needs to win the big contested states to be able to take a narrative to the Super Delegates that she is more electable in November. If the pledged delegate count shows a 50 delegate lead or an 90 pledged delegate lead or what have you, she needs to have a narrative as to why the Super Delegates should vote for her. The narrative Clinton has is that she can win the big contested states key in the general election. For that narrative to work, Clinton has to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania and be close on the pledged delegates and ahead in the popular vote. Then she can argue about Florida and Michigan.

I think this is obviously what the Clinton campaign is trying to set up. But if they do not win Ohio and Texas, the set up does not matter. I guess people love to speculate and do delegate math but it amazes me that the obvious story here has been missed by folks like Ambinder.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 29, 2008 (boomark / email).