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THE 2009 YPPSYS (TM) PRE-SEASON DIVISION I-A (FBS) COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS PREDICT A USC NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

By Andis Kaulins

We predict a USC national championship in 2009, based on the YPPSYS Ratings and Rankings.

THE YPPSYS (TM) DIVISION I-A FBS 2009 PRE-SEASON COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS are based on performance ratings and rankings from the preceding season. Yppsys ratings and rankings are a YPP SYStem (yards per play system) primarily determined by four variables: 1) the net average yards per play gained vs. lost by the offense and defense of any team; 2) strength of schedule; 3) weakness of the defense; and 4) won-loss record. These figures must be adjusted for each team as the season progresses.

• NAYPPA (TM) (Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage) is calculated according to statistical data available at CFBSTATS.COM. A team that gains 6 yards per play on offense and gives up 4 yards per play on defense has a NAYPPA of 2.0 - enough some years for a national champion.
  
• Schedule Difficulty is the ranking according to Massey Ratings. A multiple of .01 of the schedule ranking (rounded up or down) is subtracted from the NAYPPA of Division I-A FBS schools. For Division I-AA FCS and Division II schools the schedule difficulty multiple is .015 and for Division III schools and the NAIA the multiple is .02. For example, if a school has a schedule difficulty which ranks it 50th in the nation, then .01 x 50 = .5 which is subtracted from the NAYPPA, in the example above 2.0 minus 0.5 = a rating of 1.5
• Weakness of Defense Penalty. If a team allows 5 or more yards per play on defense an additional .1 is subtracted from the NAYPPA; if 6 yards per play or more are allowed, then .2 is subtracted,; if 7 yards per play or more are allowed, then .3 is subtracted. For example, if the team above with a rating of 1.5 gave up 5.2 yards per play on defense then .1 is subtracted from 1.5 to give 1.4.
  
• Win-Loss Record. For each loss .2 is deducted from the NAYPPA. For example, if the team above had a record of 12-1, i.e. losing one game, then .2 is subtracted from 1.4 for a final rating of 1.2, which in 2007 was high enough to mark the national champion.
  
• Predicting Games. ONE point of rating difference by NAYPPA = 9 points on the scoreboard. Note that Massey Ratings calculates the home field advantage at an average of 2.68 points whereas Sagarin uses the rounded figure of 3 points.

TEAM	2008 season yards/play cfbstats.com offense defense advantage NAYPPA	SCHed. difficulty multiplied times .01 is subtracted from NAYPPA	Wins-Losses Games lost adjustment Subtract .2 per loss from NAYPPA	YPPSYS Composite Rating	YPPSYS Div. I-A FBS 2009 Pre- Season Ranking
USC	6.6,3.6,3.0	3	12-1	2.8	1
Florida	7.1,4.5,2.6	32	13-1	2.1	2
Oklahoma	6.9,5.2,1.7	5	12-2	1.2	3
Oregon	6.6,4.9,1.7	2	10-3	1.1	4
Georgia	6.7,5.0,1.7	4	10-3	1.1	5
Penn State	6.5,4.4,2.1	69	11-2	1.0	6
Boise State	6.5,4.3,2.2	98	12-1	1.0	7
Texas	6.5,5.3,1.2	8	11-1	0.8	8
Texas Tech	7.1,5.6,1.5	18	11-2	0.8	9
California	5.9,4.4,1.5	16	9-4	0.5	10
Utah	5.7,4.6,1.1	64	13-0	0.5	11
TCU	5.4,3.8,1.6	68	11-2	0.5	12
Georgia Tech	6.0,4.8,1.2	6	9-4	0.3	13
Oklahoma State	7.0,5.6,1.4	17	9-4	0.3	14
Missouri	6.9,5.3,1.6	40	10-4	0.3	15
Alabama	5.5,4.3,1.2	52	12-2	0.3	16
Iowa	5.8,4.4,1.4	45	9-4	0.2	17
Mississippi	6.2,4.7,1.5	56	9-4	0.1	18
Tulsa	7.3,5.7,1.6	78	11-3	0.1	19
Ohio State	5.5,4.5,1.0	42	10-3	0.0	20
Florida State	5.5,4.8,0.7	1	9-4	-0.1	21
BYU	6.3,5.2,1.1	61	10-3	-0.2	22
West Virginia	5.7,4.7,1.0	54	9-4	-0.3	23
Cincinnati	5.6,4.7,0.9	63	11-3	-0.3	24
Houston	7.2,5.6,1.6	80	8-5	-0.3	25
Oregon State	5.7,5.0,0.7	20	9-4	-0.4	26
Nebraska	6.4,5.7,0.7	22	9-4	-0.4	27
Ball State	6.7,5.4,1.3	117	12-2	-0.4	28
Arizona	5.7,5.0,0.7	19	8-5	-0.6	29
South Florida	5.7,4.6,1.1	66	8-5	-0.6	30
Pittsburgh	5.1,4.9,0.2	53	9-4	-0.7	31
Clemson	5.2,4.5,0.7	31	7-6	-0.8	32
Illinois	6.2,5.2,1.0	41	5-7	-0.9	33
Connecticut	5.2,4.6,0.6	50	8-5	-0.9	34
Kansas	5.9,5.6,0.3	21	8-5	-1.0	35
Boston College	4.6,4.2,0.4	37	9-5	-1.0	36
Troy	5.5,4.5,1.0	101	8-5	-1.0	37
Miami of Florida	5.1,4.9,0.2	9	7-6	-1.1	38
Maryland	5.5,5.2,0.3	13	8-5	-1.1	39
LSU	5.4,5.0,0.4	23	8-5	-1.1	40
North Carolina	5.4,5.0,0.4	43	8-5	-1.1	41
Rutgers	6.2,5.4,0.8	82	8-5	-1.1	42
Baylor	5.9,5.3,0.6	15	4-8	-1.2	43
Wisconsin	5.8,5.0,0.8	67	7-6	-1.2	44
South Carolina	4.7,4.7,0.0	7	7-6	-1.3	45
Virginia Tech	4.5,4.9,-0.4	12	10-4	-1.3	46
Tennessee	4.5,4.1,0.4	30	5-7	-1.3	47
Wake Forest	4.5,4.6,-0.1	34	8-5	-1.4	48
Northwestern	4.9,4.8,0.1	73	9-4	-1.4	49
Notre Dame	5.2,5.0,0.2	36	7-6	-1.5	50
Rice	6.3,6.3,0.0	71	10-3	-1.5	51
East Carolina	5.1,4.9,0.2	72	9-5	-1.5	52
Nevada	6.5,5.9,0.6	83	7-6	-1.5	53
Western Michigan	6.0,5.5,0.5	110	9-4	-1.5	54
Arizona State	4.9,4.8,0.1	27	5-7	-1.6	55
Arkansas State	6.0,5.2,0.8	118	6-6	-1.7	56
Stanford	5.4,5.6,-0.2	11	5-7	-1.8	57
Michigan State	4.9,5.3,-0.4	55	9-4	-1.8	58
Navy	5.7,5.6,0.1	76	8-5	-1.8	59
Arkansas	5.5,5.6,-0.1	29	5-7	-1.9	60
Air Force	5.0,5.1,-0.1	75	8-5	-1.9	61
Southern Miss	5.7,5.4,0.3	86	7-6	-1.9	62
Virginia	4.6,4.9,-0.3	26	5-7	-2.0	63
Bowling Green	5.3,5.1,0.2	92	6-6	-2.0	64
Florida Atlantic	5.9,5.6,0.3	105	7-6	-2.0	65
Vanderbilt	4.2,4.9,-0.7	24	7-6	-2.1	66
Auburn	4.5,4.9,-0.4	33	5-7	-2.1	67
L.-Lafayette (ULL)	6.6,6.2,0.4	112	6-6	-2.1	68
New Mexico	4.9,5.0,-0.1	65	4-8	-2.2	69
Louisiana Tech	5.2,5.4,-0.2	93	8-5	-2.2	70
Ohio	5.6,5.1,0.5	109	4-8	-2.3	71
Northern Illinois	5.4,5.0,0.4	120	6-7	-2.3	72
Minnesota	4.9,5.7,-0.8	35	7-6	-2.4	73
Kentucky	4.5,5.2,-0.7	44	7-6	-2.4	74
Purdue	5.0,5.2,-0.2	49	4-8	-2.4	75
San Jose State	4.4,4.8,-0.4	79	6-6	-2.4	76
Kansas State	5.8,6.2,-0.4	51	5-7	-2.5	77
Wyoming	4.6,4.9,-0.3	60	4-8	-2.5	78
Colorado State	5.8,6.2,-0.4	74	7-6	-2.5	79
Fresno State	5.9,6.1,-0.2	91	7-6	-2.5	80
Florida Int'l	4.9,5.0,-0.1	95	5-7	-2.5	81
Akron	5.7,5.5,0.2	119	5-7	-2.5	82
N. Carolina State	5.1,5.7,-0.6	46	6-7	-2.6	83
Memphis	5.6,5.9,-0.3	81	6-7	-2.6	84
Central Michigan	5.7,6.1,-0.4	99	8-5	-2.6	85
Hawaii	5.4,5.5,-0.1	104	7-7	-2.6	86
UCLA	4.2,5.1,-0.9	10	4-8	-2.7	87
Louisville	5.3,5.9,-0.6	57	5-7	-2.7	88
Colorado	4.5,5.5,-1.0	28	5-7	-2.8	89
Mid. Tennessee	5.1,5.4,-0.3	103	5-7	-2.8	90
Marshall	5.1,5.4,-0.3	90	4-8	-2.9	91
Kent State	5.8,5.9,-0.1	115	4-8	-2.9	92
Mississippi State	4.2,5.1,-0.9	39	4-8	-3.0	93
Temple	4.8,5.2,-0.4	111	5-7	-3.0	94
Buffalo	5.4,5.9,-0.5	116	8-6	-3.0	95
Indiana	5.2,5.8,-0.6	59	3-9	-3.1	96
UTEP	6.0,6.6,-0.6	87	5-7	-3.1	97
Toledo	5.3,5.5,-0.2	96	3-9	-3.1	98
Duke	4.4,5.4,-1.0	47	4-8	-3.2	99
Texas A&M	5.3,6.4,-1.1	38	4-8	-3.3	100
UNLV	5.2,6.2,-1.0	70	5-7	-3.3	101
New Mexico State	5.3,5.6,-0.3	108	3-9	-3.3	102
Michigan	4.4,5.3,-0.9	62	3-9	-3.4	103
UCF	3.6,4.7,-1.1	85	4-8	-3.5	104
Utah State	5.1,5.8,-0.7	94	3-9	-3.5	105
Syracuse	4.7,5.9,-1.2	48	3-9	-3.6	106
UAB	5.6,6.6,-1.0	77	4-8	-3.6	107
Iowa State	5.5,6.7,-1.2	58	2-10	-4.0	108
Western Kentucky	4.6,5.4,-0.8	107	2-10	-4.0	109
Eastern Michigan	5.5,6.6,-1.1	100	3-9	-4.1	110
Army	4.5,5.6,-1.1	106	3-9	-4.1	111
L.-Monroe (ULM)	5.2,6.5,-1.3	114	4-8	-4.2	112
Tulane	5.0,6.3,-1.3	84	2-10	-4.3	113
San Diego State	4.8,6.2,-1.4	88	2-10	-4.5	114
SMU	5.4,6.5,-1.1	97	1-11	-4.5	115
Miami of Ohio	4.7,6.3,-1.6	89	2-10	-4.7	116
Idaho	4.8,6.6,-1.8	102	2-10	-5.0	117
Washington State	3.9,6.5,-2.6	25	2-11	-5.2	118
Washington	4.0,6.6,-2.6	14	0-12	-5.3	119
North Texas	4.9,7.1,-2.2	113	1-11	-5.8	120
TEAM	NAYPPA	SCHed. difficulty multiplied times .01 subtract from NAYPPA	Win-Loss Record subtract .2 per loss from NAYPPA	YPPSYS Rating
Other Divisions (playoff champions) Division I-AA FCS	includes playoff games if stats available	x .015
Richmond	5,6,4.4,1.2	129	13-3	-1.4
Division II		x .015
Minnesota-Duluth	6.6,3.9,2.7	278	15-0	-1.5
Division III		x .02
Mount Union	8.2,3.5,4.7	419	14-0	-3.7
NAIA		x .02
Sioux Falls	5.4,2.2,3.2	379	14-0	-4.4

Full post as published by LawPundit on September 01, 2009 (boomark / email).