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Televiso, Azteca and Univision Need El Tri Win on Wednesday

When the US and Mexico kick of in Estadio Azteca on Wednesday afternoon, there will be more riding on the game than a berth in World Cup 2010. That's not to say that World Cup qualifying isn't the most important thing at stake in the game, because there is no doubt about that - particularly for the home squad. The US can probably afford a loss as it sits comfortably in second place only two points behind Costa Rica, who visits third place Honduras in a game with political and qualifying implications. Mexico is not so fortunate. El Tri currently sit in fourth place one point back of Honduras, having lost all of its away matches. There are only three automatic qualifiers with fourth place having to play the fifth place team from South America. Nothing like a little pressure on the home squad in front of 100,000 raving lunatic fans to make for a tight team when ti takes the field.

However, Mexico and its fans aren't the only ones with a lot riding on this game. Should El Tri lose to the US for the first time ever, both of Mexico's largest media comglomerates, Grupo Televisa (NYSE:TV) and TV Azteca would both experience sharp drops in ratings and ad revenue in the event Mexico failed to reach South Africa for the first time since 1990. As reported by Bloomberg:

Mexico?s absence would reduce ratings during the tournament by 30 percent for Televisa, the world?s largest Spanish-language broadcaster, cutting advertising sales by $16.5 million, or 12 percent of the company?s total estimated growth in sales in 2010, according to BBVA Bancomer SA. TV Azteca, Mexico?s second- biggest broadcaster, would see a 15 percent drop in total sales growth, BBVA analyst Andres Coello said in a report.

Mexico's absence from the World Cup could damage the ratings that the Spanish language broadcast receives in the US. Univision holds the exclusive Spanish language rights to the US and will televise all 64 games on one its networks. While the US is certainly a significant, if not the main draw, Mexico would run a close second, if not outdraw the US. Its absence would significantly and adversely affect the ratings and ultimately the revenue Univision is able to garner from the World Cup, probably the most expensive rights license on its calendar.

Full post as published by Sports Biz on August 11, 2009 (boomark / email).