Legal Commentary

Why The Big States Matter

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

I am asked why the big contested states should matter so much to me? I think it is pretty obvious but let me try it this way:

California - 55 EVs. Texas - 34 EVs. (A GOP stronghold) New York - 31 EVs. (A Dem stronghold) Florida - 27 EVs. (Thanks Howard and Donna.) Illinois - 21 EVs. (A Dem stronghold.) Pennsylvania - 21 EVs. Ohio - 20 EVs. Georgia - 15 EVS. (a GOP stronghold.) North Carolina - 15 EVs. (a GOP stronghold) New Jersey - 15 EVs. Virginia - 13 EVs. Mass - 12 EVs.

And a few others down the list -

Minnesota - 10. Wisconsin - 10. Iowa - 7. Nevada - 5. Colorado - 9. Oregon - 7. Arkansas - 6.

Obama is perceived to have a meaningful General Election advantage in Virginia and the states I list below, save Arkansas. That is 61 EVs.

In my view, Clinton has a perceived advantage, for many reasons including the DNC's idiotic behavior, in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, California, New Jersey and Arkansas. That adds up to 144 EVs.

Obama NEEDS to prove he can win electoral vote rich states that Dems can win, like Ohio and Pennsylvania. This election will NOT be won in Utah, Alabama and North Dakota.

That is why the big contested states matter.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 19, 2008 (boomark / email).