Legal Commentary

BP's PECOTA projection for the 2008 Stros

By Tom Kirkendall

The sabermetricians over at Baseball Prospectus have developed a statistical system for projecting baseball player performance called PECOTA, which is short for "Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm." PECOTA player performance based on comparison with thousands of historical player-seasons and analyzes similarities with past player-seasons based not only on rate statistics, but also height, weight, age, and many other factors. It is a remarkably accurate predictor of player performance.

BP annually prepares PECOTA projections on each Major League and minor league ballplayer, so it is a simple process to aggregate those individual numbers and project how each MLB team will do. BP's projection for each MLB Division in the 2008 season is here ($), although you will have to subscribe to BP to review the entire PECOTA projections.

Not surprisingly, BP projects the Stros to finish 74-88 (or one game better than last season), good for fourth in the NL Central behind the Cubs, Brewers and Reds. PECOTA projects the Stros' hitting to continue to be league-average with no meaningful improvement in the abysmal pitching that the club endured last season.

Well, at least we'll have the Craig Biggio number retirement ceremony to look forward to. ;^)

By the way, Baseball Prospectus 2008, BP's annual book that is the best source of knowledge about baseball, is scheduled to be published in the next week or so. If you enjoy following baseball, then I highly recommend it.

Full post as published by Houston's Clear Thinkers on February 18, 2008 (boomark / email).