Bankruptcy

Highly Questionable Medical Bankruptcy Figures from Fraser Institute

By Bob Lawless

The National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) is flogging a study from the Fraser Institute in Canada that purports to show U.S. medical bankruptcies are a "myth" because the Canadian bankruptcy rate is higher than in the United States. Reuters and BusinessWire have run the NCPA's press release as a story on their news services. Before anyone takes this study seriously, a few important facts are needed to place the Fraser Institute findings in context. To be as charitable as possible, the study's use of the bankruptcy data is extremely selective.

First, the Fraser Institute study begins by observing that advocates of a single-payor U.S. health care system use the assumption that such a system would prevent many U.S. bankruptcies because of the medical debt found among many U.S. consumers filing for bankruptcy. The study states, "We should expect to observe a lower rate of bankruptcy in Canada compared to the United States, all else being equal." First, I'm not sure that is an assumption made by advocates of a single-payor system (and I don't count myself as one of them). Second, the qualifier "all else being equal" is the whole point. There is a lot that is not equal between the U.S. and Canada, and there is no reason to expect bankruptcy rates to be precisely similar. Even on its own terms, however, the Frasier Institute study is highly suspect because of the narrow window it uses for its bankruptcy data.

The Fraser Institute study, which is really just a three-page report of existing data from government sources, used bankruptcy filing data for the calendar years 2006 and 2007 as the "most recent data." Both the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada and the U.S. courts have 2008 data available. For a report that carries a July 2009 date, the years 2006 and 2007 would not seem to be the most recent data available. Authors have to prepare publications in advance of their appearance, but the U.S. data were available in a press release dated March 5, 2009, and the Canadian data appear on a web page that states "modified March 11, 2009." There was surely plenty of time to use the 2008 data for a 3-page paper that has fewer data than this blog post. By limiting the data to 2006 and 2007, however, the report is able to support that the anti-health care reform agenda that the NCPA and the Fraser Institute seem to further.

For both 2006 and 2007, the Fraser Institute study reports a Canadian bankruptcy filing rate of 0.30% of total population or 3.0 for every 1,000 persons. As the table to the right verifies, the Canadian bankruptcy rate for those two years is lower than in the United States, hardly a surprising result given the draconian 2005 U.S. bankruptcy law and the artificial dip in U.S. bankruptcy filings at that time. Here is the thing: for any other year in the past ten years, the U.S. bankruptcy rate is higher than 3.0. Examining the most recent data, as the Fraser Institute study purported to do, would have shown a higher 2008 rate for the United States. For 2009, my projection (approx 1.45 million bankruptcy filings) suggest a U.S. bankruptcy filing rate of about 4.7 per 1,000 total population.

The Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada has data on the Canadian consumer insolvency rate based on the population aged 18 and over. Using the adult population as a base certainly makes more sense than using the total population as the Fraser Institute study does, but in fairness, I do not think their substantive results would have differed had they used the adult population to calculate a bankruptcy rate. Combining the Canadian data with data from the U.S. courts and the U.S. Census, the table to the right shows the bankruptcy filing rate for the adult population for both countries. Again, in all years but the two that the Fraser Institute study happened to pick, the U.S. bankruptcy filing rate is higher.

I'll stop there. The facts speak pretty clearly for themselves. Hat tip to Credit Slips reader and commenter AMC for bringing this matter to my attention in a comment to a blog post.

Full post as published by Credit Slips on July 09, 2009 (boomark / email).