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Correlation versus Causation

By Tom W. Bell and Glen Whitman

I have a friend-of-a-friend who refuses to drink diet soda, on grounds that it makes you fat. The evidence? The fact that so many diet-soda drinkers are fat. Our friend-in-common refers to this guy as "the Caveman." I think the Caveman would appreciate this article, which notes a statistical correlation between drinking diet soda and having metabolic syndrome (a combination of cardiovascular risk factors including abdominal obesity and high blood pressure):

The scientists gathered dietary information on more than 9,500 men and women ages 45 to 64 and tracked their health for nine years. ... [S]urprisingly, the risk of developing metabolic syndrome was 34 percent higher among those who drank one can of diet soda a day compared with those who drank none.

Surprisingly? I'm not surprised at all. Fortunately, a co-author of the study at least hints at the most likely explanation: "Why is it happening? Is it some kind of chemical in the diet soda, or something about the behavior of diet soda drinkers?" I'm betting on the latter.

Full post as published by Agoraphilia on February 13, 2008 (boomark / email).