Legal Commentary

Avoiding The Issue: Obama, Clinton And The Voting Demographics

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

NOTE - Comments are now closed.

Matt Stoller writes about a news story that argues Obama is gaining among women. Matt likes that line and allows the important underlying story to be overshadowed. Matt writes:

More significantly, her lead among women has slipped to just 10 points in state.

But what does that mean? It means that, as in MD, VA, and DC, CALIFORNIA and almost EVERY STATE, Obama is winning African American women 4-1. This is not the issue for Obama in terms of a General election. Among women, Obama needs to win white women in a general election.

More . . .

Let's consider Maryland, which the cited article cites as proof of the big swing of women towards Obama. In fact, Obama LOST white women to Clinton by 56-38, an 18 point spread. In a throwaway line, the article cited by Stoller states:

According to a CBS News analysis of exit polls on Tuesday's primary battles in Maryland and Virginia, 55 percent of all female voters in Maryland and 60 percent of all female voters in Virginia voted for Obama, though Clinton did maintain her edge among white women.

(Emphasis supplied.) That is some understatement. He has lost white women, Latinos, and working class white men in almost every primary. Take California for instance.

In California, Clinton won white women by 20 points, just 2 points higher than her spread in Maryland. she lost African American women by 75-17, similar to the result in Maryland. She won Latinos by a wider margin in California than in Maryland, but she still won Latinos in Maryland by 11 points.

Even consider white men. In California, Obama WON white men by a whopping 20 points over Clinton. That gap NARROWED in Maryland to a 3 point win for Obama. One could even argue that Obama LOST ground among white men since California.

But the REAL story is this, the percentage of the vote the candidates get is almost exclusively a function of the demographics of the state. Consider Wisconsin. Obama is winning African Americans, men and women. Running slightly ahead with white men and losing Latinos and white women.

Consider Ohio. The same breakdown.

And Pennsylvania. Again the same.

For all the talk of momentum, trends and other empty buzzwords, the most significant aspect of this race is the seemingly unswerving voting patterns of the different demographics.

After Wisconsin, the big states favor Hillary Clinton in the nomination process. Will this be enough to capture the nomination? Who knows.

But I think it is fair to start considering what these trends portend for a general election. And I do think it is time for the media and the blogs to stop ignoring this elephant in the room. I know what my solution is - an Obama/Clinton or a Clinton/Obama ticket. I wonder how those so dedicated to demonizing Hillary Clinton will deal with that.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 17, 2008 (boomark / email).