Legal Commentary

JFK, West Virginia, Obama And TX, OH And PA

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Barack Obama is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He is likely to be the pledged delegate leader at the end of the process. What else does Obama need? To me, one of two thing. He needs to be the clear popular vote winner (which means larger than the Florida spread) and/or he has to win one of the big contested primaries remaining - Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania. Why?

To my way of thinking, Obama has yet to prove he can win some of the key states' primaries, states Dems need in a general election. And this is not an unprecedented criteria for a potential nominee. Many like to compare Obama to JFK. And this episode in JFK's fight for the Presidency is instructive:

By May 1960, John F. Kennedy seemed to be the early favorite to win the Democratic presidential nomination, but Lyndon B. Johnson, Hubert H. Humphrey, and Adlai Stevenson all remained strong potential rivals. The West Virginia primary, held on May 10, 1960, proved to be a decisive battleground in the race. Kennedy, who had not faced serious opposition in the other primaries, suddenly faced a serious challenge from Hubert Humphrey, the junior senator from Minnesota. In order to secure his party's nomination, Kennedy had to win West Virginia's delegates. Losing would effectively take the decision off the convention floor and throw it into the hands of the Democratic Party's powerful urban bosses, a development JFK was anxious to avoid because they would favor more seasoned party elders. . . .

I believe Obama is in a somewhat analogous situation. He has lost every contested big state primary except his home state - California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey particularly.

And yes, he lost Florida's vote. Winning one of Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania seems a fair test for Obama's chances in a general election. I believe it is the last barrier to cross. Can Obama do it?

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 13, 2008 (boomark / email).