Home -> Law Blog Directory -> Legal Commentary Blogs -> TalkLeft

Legal Commentary

: TalkLeft

Theories

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

A lot of my theories of this election will be facing their moments of truth in the next month. I will lay them out here now so folks can razz me on how wrong I was.

The Dem Nomination

Hillary runs better than Obama in contested big state primaries. The tests? Texas and Ohio on March 4th.

As a result, Clinton is still the favorite for the nomination. The test? Well, winning the nomination.

To win the nomination, Obama needs to run better with women, registered Dems, Latinos and working class whites. The test? Again Texas and Ohio on March 4th.

More . . .

The General Election

Obama is a Media Darling. The test? The coverage he receives after he fully assumes the frontrunner mantle after winning the Wisconsin primary on February 19. If he gets the normal frontrunner treatment (see Dean, Howard, circa December 2003), Obama should get a bushel full of tough media coverage. I predict he will not.

Because Obama is a Media darling, he is our best bet for November. This seems self evident. The test for this theory will be in November if Obama is the nominee.

Obama will NOT have long coattails in a General Election. Why? Because he does not run as a partisan Democrat. He will not be making an argument that we need more Democrats in Congress. He will not be making an argument against Republicans in Congress. The test? The results in November.

If Clinton is the nominee, the Republicans and the Media will engage in the dirtiest campaign in recent history. Clinton will win a close election and slightly expand the slim Dem majority in the Congress.

An Obama Presidency

The Obama Presidency will begin with a mandate for ending the war in Iraq. And with a mandate for nothing else. Republicans will resist him at every turn. Little will be accomplished except, and this is a huge except, ending the Iraq Debacle.

Health care reform will be compromised to the point of nothingess.

The Bush tax cuts will be extended until 2012. Obama supporters like Claire McCaskill and Ben Nelson will lead the fight to extend the Bush tax cuts.

Obama will easily win reelection due to his ability to rise above politics. The test? The 2012 elections.

A Clinton Presidency

The Iraq Debacle will be ended.

Health care reform will be stymied by Republicans and conservative Democrats like Claire McCaskill and Ben Nelson.

The Bush tax cuts will be the biggest battle of the Congress. It could even lead to a government shutdown.

Nothing will be accomplished because Clinton will not compromise with the Republicans. Partisan warfare breaks out with the Media siding with the Republicans.

In 2010, Clinton and the Democrats run on universal health care paid for by rolling back the Bush tax cuts. The Dems win a governing majority.

In 2012, after rolling back the Bush tax cuts and enacting universal health care reform, Clinton loses her reelection bid to Bobby Jindal, the Governor of Louisiana. Democrats lose the Congress.

There it is. So shoot away.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 10, 2008 (boomark / email).

Bloggers, promote your law blog by nominating your blog for inclusion in USLaw.com's Law Blog Directory and RSS Reader. Benefits described.

Related Searches