International Law

Trying to Decipher U.S. Taiwan Policy

By Stan

I don’t usually write about Taiwan — don’t really care about it too much, to be honest. Once in a while, however, I do notice what the U.S. is doing with respect to cross-strait tensions.

I recently wrote about the U.S. decision not to sell additional F-16s to Taiwan, a move which I consider quite prudent given the huge multilateral problems facing the U.S., most of which require China’s support.

The latest tidbit concerns the U.S. House of Representatives and its passing of a non-binding resolution “honoring” the 30th anniversary of the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act, which among other things states that the U.S. will help Taiwan defend itself (i.e. it will give/sell weapons to it). The resolution itself was just some low-level political theater, albeit quite annoying.

Why would the House pass such an empty resolution and piss off China, particularly at a time when cross-straits relations are very good? An article in Asia Times by Jian Junbo of Fudan University has some interesting thoughts:

[C]ross-strait relations are now in their best phase since the KMT, then led by Chiang Kai-shek, fled the mainland for Taiwan in 1949. So at first glance it seems strange that the US Congress should choose now to adopt the TRA resolution - reduced tensions across the Taiwan Strait reduce the need for US arms sales to Taiwan. But the move is in no way intended to further detente across the Taiwan Strait.

The official reason given for the resolution was to mark the 30th anniversary of the TRA. However, this year also marks the 30th anniversary of the 1979 joint Communique for the PRC and the US. Why didn’t the House honor that? The question can be asked in another way: why did the US House choose to reawaken tensions instead of encouraging the healthy state of China-Taiwan relations?

Obviously, Washington thinks that cross-strait ties have progressed so rapidly in the past year that they are deviating from the status quo it desires, that is, a continuation of tensions. The House’s adoption of the TRA resolution is a blatant signal that the US is dissatisfied with warming China-Taiwan ties. If we link this resolution to the recent Pentagon report on Chinese military power - which stated that the PRC is militarily superior to Taiwan - maybe it’s easy to conclude that the US wants to see some instability on the Taiwan Strait.

I think this argument is rather compelling. I actually find it rather easy to believe that the U.S. military sees Taiwan as an important ally in the region and would prefer to drive a wedge between it and the mainland. On its face, this strategy sounds reasonable in a realpolitik sort of way.

The reason why I think it’s ultimately bullshit, though, is that the logic of the U.S. position is fundamentally circular. An “independent” and armed Taiwan may offer the U.S. some military support in the area, but what is the value of those military capabilities?

Seems like a lot of them are evaluated based on their usefulness in an armed conflict with the mainland. What sort of conflict? A cross-straits conflict. In other words, Taiwan is a significant U.S. military ally in the event that Taiwan itself is attacked.

Am I oversimplifying this? It seems to me that if cross-straits tensions are eased, and the threat of armed conflict is reduced, then the strategic importance of Taiwan to the U.S. slowly fades away. At the same time, perhaps some of these ridiculous war games and show of force exercises could be done away with as well.

Now, I know that the U.S. defense industry loves Taiwan and would like them to buy lots of U.S. weapons (paid for by the U.S. government or Taiwan, doesn’t matter). There are also ideologues in the U.S. government that will support any regime with interests adverse to that of “Red” China. But weapons and ideology aside, and looking at this only with long-term U.S. interests in mind, why on earth would you do anything to slow down China-Taiwan detente?

© Stan for China Hearsay, 2009. | Permalink | 2 comments | Add to del.icio.us

Full post as published by China Hearsay on April 01, 2009 (boomark / email).