International Law

More Opinions on Obama and China

By Stan

I have about 15 articles on this topic in my Inbox, but I’ll start with this one today since it is "fresh". This column was in the IHT and begins with the following:

In contrast to the general rush in most parts of the world to congratulate Barack Obama and hail a new era of American leadership, an initially muted response from Beijing followed by an outburst in the state-run China Daily immediately after the inauguration is significant.

It suggests that he enthusiasm with which Obama was received in Europe will not be replicated in China, at least not in the Communist leadership. On the contrary, the new president may well fan old Chinese fears, pointing to difficult times ahead in the most important bilateral relationship for the world.

The entire article is worth reading. I agree with many of the author’s points but feel that some nuance is lacking.

The basic point is that China, which follows a fundamentally realist foreign policy, is threatened by a successful Obama presidency and a U.S. that seeks to rebuild its leadership position in the world. To an extent, I think this is true. Chinese foreign policy is undoubtedly realist in its outlook (the author uses the term "neorealist" but this is too much for even my SAIS background — I’ll stick with vanilla realism).

There will also definitely be folks in Beijing who see any Obama successes within the framework of zero-sum-gain geopolitics. One cannot argue with the author’s reminder that Bush’s failure to pay attention to Asia during his presidency allowed China to assert its power in the region dramatically.

What’s missing here is a closer look at both Obama’s goals and those of Beijing. On the U.S. side, Obama’s rhetoric has not revealed him as someone interested in restoring the U.S. as a hegemon in the world, but rather restoring the reputation and image of the U.S. globally. The result is not greater U.S. power from a unilateral standpoint, but a greater ability of the U.S. to work with other nations, particularly on global initiatives such as the environment.

On the PRC side, I give the folks here credit for knowing the difference between an Obama-led restoration of the U.S. image abroad and a Reagan-era excercise in military buildup and saber rattling.

The author’s bottom line here is that America might be seen as dangerous to Beijing because of what it represents (the column’s title is "The danger of an attractive America." To me, this smacks a bit of the old War on Terror statement that Al Qaeda hates America because of "our freedom and way of life". Not to be overly negative, but with the financial meltdown that was started (arguably) by a lack of regulation of Wall Street, I don’t think that Beijing or other countries are necessarily looking to the U.S. these days as a model of anything, at least with respect to the econ sphere — basic political structure is another issue.

Final note: Obama is not Reagan and Beijing’s political advisors probably understand this.

Full post as published by China Hearsay on February 03, 2009 (boomark / email).