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THE YPPSYS DIVISION I-A FBS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS for the 2008 SEASON : After the 13th WEEK of Play

By Andis Kaulins

THE YPPSYS DIVISION I-A FBS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS for the 2008 SEASON
(after the 13th week of play)

THE YPPSYS DIVISION I-A FBS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS after Week 13 of play. NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage) is calculated according to CFBSTATS.COM. Schedule Difficulty is the ranking according to Massey Ratings. One-tenth (a multiple of .10) of the schedule ranking (rounded up or down) is substracted from the NAYPPA of Division I-A FBS schools. For each loss .2 is deducted from the NAYPPA. For Division I-AA FCS the schedule-ranking multiple is .15. For Division II and Division III schools the multiple is .20. Note that if a team allows 5 or more yards per play on defense an additional .1 is substracted from the NAYPPA; if 6 yards per play or more are allowed,then .2 is subtracted, etc.. MOV means margin of victory ranking according to the Massey Ratings, but we do not use it here in the calculations.
1 point of rating difference = 9 points on the scoreboard. As one can see, on average, USC and Florida are about a half a touchdown better than Oklahoma and at least one TD better than the rest of the college football field. Alabama has not played a much tougher schedule than Utah, which is also undefeated, so there is no reason to rank the Crimson Tide Number One, nor should they retain that ranking. Against a rock solid USC defense , the meagre Alabama offense would probably not score a point. Seldom has a team topped the polls which less deserves to be there, simply because of the SEC bias in the polls and the press and the Saban karma. It somehow fits this chaotic football year. In 2008, in fact, the SEC ranks 3rd in performance by all standards. The Big 12 is clearly first.

Take a look at the teams that we rank in the median area from 59th to 63rd place (there are 120 teams in Division I-A FBS so that the median is the middle of the list at 60th and 61st place. These teams gain as much yardage per play on offense as they give up on defense, so we would expect their performance to be average. That such teams are concentrated here shows that our ranking system works. These teams all have winning records because of schedules that are weaker than the median, but our rating formula balances that out.

TEAM	NAYPPA	SCH x 1/10 subtract from NAYPPA	W-L .2 per loss subtract from NAYPPA	MOV (just for fun)	YPPSYS Rating	YPPSYS Div. I-A FBS Ranking
USC	3.2	36	9-1	5	2.6	1
Florida	2.9	17	10-1	4	2.5	2
Oklahoma	2.2	6	10-1	2	1.9	3
Penn State	2.4	71	11-1	6	1.5	4
Texas Tech	1.8	10	10-1	3	1.4	5
Boise State	2.3	103	11-0	9	1.3	6
Missouri	2.1	38	9-2	12	1.2	7
Georgia	1.7	8	9-2	15	1.1	8
Oklahoma State	1.9	33	9-2	8	1.1	9
Alabama	1.5	41	11-0	7	1.1	10
Texas	1.2	1	10-1	1	1.0	11
Georgia Tech	1.6	24	8-3	27	0.8	12
TCU	1.6	51	10-2	13	0.7	13
Ball State	1.9	119	11-0	14	0.6	14
Utah	1.0	56	12-0	11	0.4	15
Florida State	1.2	26	8-3	22	0.3	16
West Virginia	1.3	42	7-3	34	0.3	17
Tulsa	2.0	115	9-2	46	0.3	18
Oregon State	1.1	31	8-3	16	0.2	19
California	1.0	23	7-4	26	0.2	20
Ohio State	1.1	47	10-2	10	0.2	21
Mississippi	1.1	22	7-4	20	0.1	22
Cincinnati	0.9	44	9-2	18	0.1	23
Oregon	1.4	71	8-3	24	0.1	24
Iowa	1.4	57	8-4	23	0.0	25
BYU	1.3	75	10-2	25	0.0	26
Nebraska	0.8	9	7-4	17	-0.2	27
Houston	1.7	102	7-4	57	-0.2	28
Clemson	0.7	11	6-5	40	-0.4	29
South Florida	1.0	63	7-4	55	-0.4	30
North Carolina	0.4	7	7-4	37	-0.5	31
Miami of Florida	0.3	12	7-4	30	-0.6	32
LSU	0.5	21	7-4	38	-0.6	33
Connecticut	0.6	43	7-4	44	-0.6	34
Boston College	0.2	30	8-3	21	-0.7	35
Pittsburgh	0.3	34	7-3	36	-0.7	36
Troy	1.2	114	7-4	66	-0.7	37
South Carolina	0.2	15	7-4	28	-0.8	38
Maryland	0.4	27	7-4	48	-0.8	39
Kansas	0.4	18	6-5	39	-0.9	40
Nevada	1.0	76	6-5	62	-0.9	41
Western Michigan	0.7	110	9-2	35	-0.9	42
Virginia Tech	-0.3	13	7-4	32	-1.0	43
Baylor	0.6	14	4-7	58	-1.0	44
Illinois	1.0	48	5-7	68	-1.0	45
Wisconsin	0.7	55	7-5	41	-1.0	46
Northwestern	0.2	72	9-3	29	-1.1	47
Rutgers	0.4	53	6-5	43	-1.2	48
Notre Dame	0.4	62	6-5	70	-1.2	49
Arizona	0.7	79	6-5	47	-1.2	50
Michigan State	-0.2	39	9-3	19	-1.3	51
Arkansas State	1.0	116	5-5	101	-1.3	52
Wake Forest	-0.4	4	6-5	42	-1.4	53
Vanderbilt	-0.6	20	6-5	54	-1.4	54
Tennessee	0.3	25	4-7	81	-1.4	55
Virginia	-0.3	3	5-6	59	-1.5	56
Fresno State	0.3	90	7-4	69	-1.5	57
Arizona State	0.3	65	4-6	84	-1.6	58
Air Force	0.0	68	8-4	52	-1.6	59
Navy	-0.1	69	6-4	56	-1.7	60
East Carolina	0.0	80	7-4	67	-1.7	61
Rice	0.1	101	8-3	49	-1.7	62
Hawaii	0.0	70	6-5	75	-1.8	63
Northern Illinois	0.4	113	6-5	71	-1.8	64
N. Carolina State	-0.6	5	5-6	51	-2.0	65
Arkansas	-0.3	19	4-7	79	-2.0	66
Louisville	0.0	74	5-6	98	-2.0	67
Buffalo	-0.3	83	7-4	50	-2.0	68
Kentucky	-0.5	52	6-5	60	-2.1	69
Auburn	-0.2	67	5-6	78	-2.1	70
Akron	0.2	95	5-6	90	-2.1	71
L.-Lafayette (ULL)	0.5	117	5-6	108	-2.1	72
Stanford	-0.2	50	5-7	74	-2.2	73
Southern Miss	0.0	93	5-6	85	-2.2	74
Louisiana Tech	-0.3	97	7-4	77	-2.2	75
Bowling Green	-0.1	100	5-6	88	-2.2	76
Florida Atlantic	0.2	106	5-6	110	-2.2	77
Purdue	-0.2	37	3-8	87	-2.3	78
Colorado State	-0.5	46	6-6	82	-2.3	79
New Mexico	-0.1	49	4-8	102	-2.3	80
Central Michigan	-0.7	82	8-3	45	-2.3	81
Ohio	0.2	94	3-8	124	-2.4	82
Mississippi State	-0.5	45	4-7	97	-2.5	83
Kansas State	-0.4	54	5-7	83	-2.5	84
Minnesota	-0.6	78	7-5	63	-2.5	85
Toledo	0.1	88	3-8	123	-2.5	86
San Jose State	-0.4	89	6-6	107	-2.5	87
Duke	-1.1	2	4-7	76	-2.6	88
Colorado	-1.1	16	5-6	72	-2.6	89
Wyoming	-0.3	77	4-8	127	-2.7	90
Florida Int'l	-0.3	105	4-6	115	-2.7	91
Mid. Tennessee	-0.3	111	5-6	117	-2.7	92
UCLA	-0.9	64	4-6	93	-2.8	93
Temple	-0.5	84	4-7	100	-2.8	94
Kent State	-0.1	118	3-8	135	-2.8	95
Marshall	-0.5	87	4-7	119	-2.9	96
New Mexico State	-0.2	98	3-8	142	-2.9	97
Memphis	-0.4	108	5-6	112	-2.9	98
Texas A&M	-1.0	32	4-7	92	-3.0	99
Michigan	-0.9	29	3-9	99	-3.1	100
Indiana	-0.6	60	3-9	130	-3.1	101
UTEP	-0.8	91	5-6	91	-3.1	102
UNLV	-1.0	59	5-7	105	-3.2	103
Utah State	-0.9	35	2-9	134	-3.3	104
UCF	-1.1	86	4-7	106	-3.4	105
Syracuse	-1.3	40	3-8	114	-3.5	106
Army	-0.9	92	3-8	128	-3.5	107
Western Kentucky	-0.7	109	2-9	188	-3.7	108
Eastern Michigan	-1.0	104	2-9	145	-3.9	109
SMU	-1.0	81	1-10	173	-4.0	110
Iowa State	-1.2	66	2-10	132	-4.1	111
Tulane	-1.2	85	2-9	169	-4.1	112
Miami of Ohio	-1.5	99	2-9	151	-4.1	113
UAB	-1.2	112	3-8	141	-4.1	114
San Diego State	-1.4	61	2-10	150	-4.2	115
L.-Monroe (ULM)	-1.3	120	4-8	133	-4.3	116
Idaho	-1.8	96	2-10	184	-5.0	117
Washington	-2.4	28	0-11	191	-5.1	118
Washington State	-2.7	73	2-10	165	-5.6	119
North Texas	-2.3	107	1-10	215	-5.7	120
Other Divisions (selected teams) Division I-AA FCS	includes playoff games	x 1.5/10 unless over 200 then x2
James Madison	1.5	121	10-1	31	-0.5
Appalachian State (defending champ)	2.0	130	10-2	73	-0.3	going for 4 in a row
Weber State	1.9	113	9-3	86	-0.8
Villanova	0.5	123	9-2	65	-1.8
Richmond	1.5	124	9-3	61	-1.0
Wofford	1.8	137	9-2	89	-0.7
Montana	0.8	149	11-1	53	-1.5
Colgate	-0.2	191	9-2	138	-3.5
Cal Poly	2.0	147	8-2	64	-0.7
South Carolina St.	2.1	223	10-2	136	-2.6
Eastern Kentucky	no stats	184	8-3	166	-3.7 (est.)	no stats
Northern Iowa	0.7	161	10-2	94	-2.1
Maine	0.4	129	8-4	104	-2.7
New Hampshire	1.8	136	9-2	80	-0.6
Southern Illinois	0.9	164	9-2	113	-2.0
Texas State	0.6	170	8-4	149	-3.0
Division II		x 2/10
Abilene Christian	4.1 (!)	168	11-0	34	0.7	! 14th ! nationally
Grand Valley St.	2.8	245	11-0	103	-2.1
Minnesota-Duluth	3.3	335	12-0	118	-3.4
North Alabama	2.3	279	11-1	131	-3.5
Delta State	1.3	253	10-1	153	-3.9
Valdosta State (defending champ)	1.5	270	9-3	190	-4.5	eliminated in the playoffs
NW Missouri St.	2.1	180	11-1	95	-1.7
Bloomsburg	1.3	302	11-1	187	-4.9
California (PA)	1.8	298	11-1	171	-4.4
Division III		x 2/10
Mary Hardin-Baylor	2.0	417	10-1	278	-6.5
UW-Whitewater (defending champ)	2.2	339	10-1	235	-4.8
Mount Union (perennial champ)	5.5 (!)	420	11-0	125	-2.9	! Larry Kehres !
North Central College, Illinois	2.0	480	11-0	265	-7.8
Hobart	0.5	586	9-1	433	-11.3
Cortland State	1.5	582	10-1	403	-10.3
Curry	1.4	690	10-1	509	-12.6
Franklin (Indiana)	2.3	492	10-1	301	-7.7
Wabash	2.6	631	10-1	373	-10.2
Wheaton (Illinois)	1.7	424	9-2	322	-7.2
Willamette	2.6	396	11-0	193	-5.3
Wartburg	0.4	447	9-2	334	-8.9
Monmouth (Ill.)	2.6	614	11-0	302	-9.7
Millsaps	2.4	494	11-0	216	-7.5
Wash. & Jeff.	2.3	611	10-1	409	-10.1
Wesley (Delaware)	2.7	464	9-1	255	-6.8
NAIA
Carroll College of Montana (NAIA) (defending champ)	2.2	280	12-0	147	-3.4

Full post as published by LawPundit on November 26, 2008 (boomark / email).