Election-Campaign Law

Residual vote in Florida, the early view

By Charles Stewart III

It is way too early to make too much of outliers as the election returns are posted by states.  Still, it is becoming possible to take a peek at residual vote statistics, which I’ll be doing today and tomorrow.

Florida is a place to start.  As of this writing, the state elections department has posted full returns from 56 of 67 counties. Here are some very preliminary findings.  All oddities are noted not in the spirit of suggesting shenanigans, but in the spirit of inviting a closer look.

1. The overall residual vote rate has increased by about 0.4% points, compared to 2004.  Viewed another way, among these 56 counties, the residual vote rate has doubled, compared to 2004.
2. At the moment, there appears to be no relationship between the change in residual vote rates and turnout rates in the counties.  In other words, “more inexperienced voters” doesn’t appear to be the answer to why the preliminary increase in the residual vote rate.
3. Small counties appear to have larger residual vote increases than large counties.
4. Counties that abandoned their DREs had essentially the same residual vote rate change as those that had optical scanning in both 2004 and 2008.
5. Unexplored at this point is whether early voting or absentee voting could explain the residual vote increase.
6. Holmes county is a clear outlier, as of this writing.  Its turnout is down by about 50% and its residual vote rate roughly tripled.

Ohio is next, after class and a press call.

Full post as published by Election Updates on November 05, 2008 (boomark / email).