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Why the big surprise?

By Jack M. Balkin

The New York Times headlines one of its articles "Level of White Support for Obama a Surprise." The obvious question is, to whom? Much has been written of the "Bradley effect," which has been criticized as inapplicable even to the original 1982 election that give the ostensible "effect" its name. But even if, for sake of argument, the polls in that election of 26 years ago were distorted by the unwillingness of people to admit that they simply wouldn't vote for the African-Ameican candidate, isn't it, shall we say, unforgivably stupid to believe that nothing has changed since then in America and that what was true in 1982 is, of course, true today?

As Ronald Reagan might have put it, it is morning in America, and one of the things we're all learning is that the country really and truly has changed. It's not that there are no racists left, but surely there are far fewer. And, to give credit where credit is due, one should acknowledge that George W. Bush apparently had no hesitation at all in naming African-Americans as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. He may be many things, but a racist is not one of them.

One should be exhilarated that Obama is pulling more white support than any other Democratic candidate, including Bill Clinton, but shouldn't we stop being surprised and take real pleasure, whatever our politics, that this is the case? (Perhaps even McCain supporters will realize that there are silver linings even in what they will view as a very dark cloud.) Perhaps the media next time will write fewer articles on the probable unwillingness of white working class Americans--i.e., the "real Americans"--to cast their lot with an African-American candidate who just happens to speak to their interests and, dare one say it, aspirations and hopes for a better country. That analysis is turning out to be no more sophisticated than the belief that Democratic supporters of Hillary Clinton would actually prefer a 72-year-old Republican just because he picked a hard-line anti-reproductive choice, anti-welfare state, know-nothing woman.

Full post as published by Balkinization on November 03, 2008 (boomark / email).