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College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 11 - Week and Weekend of Saturday, November 8, 2008

By Andis Kaulins

We were on the road for a scientific conference in London this weekend and unable to timely post our football predictions for last week, but we should note that our stats would have predicted a Texas Tech win over Texas.

YPPSYS (tm)
College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 11 - Week and Weekend of Saturday, November 8, 2008. Odds are taken from the College Football Prediction Tracker from Monday, November 3. We do this all in good fun and disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

Net average yards per play offense and defense according to CFBSTATS.COM
SoS = Massey Ratings Strength of Schedule
SAHFA = Scott Albrecht Home Field Advantage in points
(The game score prediction formula is: NAYPPA (Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage or Disadvantage between team offenses and team defenses) x 9, adjusted by the net difference in the strength of schedule as divided by 10, plus or minus the home field advantage in points, minus 2 points per loss per team, minus 1 point for a defense averaging 5.0 yards per play or worse or minus 2 points for a defense averaging 6.0 yards per play or worse. Thus far this year, the median net average yards per play for a team in Division IA FBS college football is 5.4 on offense, and 5.3 on defense) We would also ultimately like to include a MOV (margin of victory) variable in our calculations, but this is not yet implemented.

Toledo (5.1, 5.4, SoS= 81) is an underdog by 4.5 points at Akron (5.7, 5.6, SoS= 97, SAHFA=9.23)
Prediction: Akron 34-24
Game result:

San Diego State (4.7, 6.2, SoS= 68) is an underdog by 36.5 points at BYU (6.4, 5.1, SoS= 86, SAHFA= 5.21)
Prediction: We call it for BYU 49-7
Game result:

Nebraska (6.4, 6.0, SoS= 12, SAHFA= 4.87) is an underdog by 1.5 points at home against Kansas (6.1, 5.3, SoS= 47)
Prediction: The unimaginative playcalling of the Huskers, which we have strongly criticized in past postings, cost the Cornhuskers dearly in a 62-28 loss to Oklahoma last week, in which they trailed devastated 35-0 in a first quarter marked by Sooner interceptions of what the Oklahoma defense in fact called predictable plays for which they were well-prepared. Last year, the Huskers averaged 6.3 net yards per play on offense and 6.1 net yards per play on defense, so that the Nebraska football team (6.4 and 6.0 this year) has not made anywhere near the progress one might have expected this year from the Pelini led team. The stats make this game absolutely even, so that Nebraska should win by the home field advantage.
We call it 31-26 for the Cornhuskers.
Game result:

Colorado State (5.5, 6.2, SoS= 43) is an underdog by 10.5 points at Air Force (4.8, 4.5, SoS= 90, SAHFA= 3.11)
Prediction: We call it for Air Force 31-21
Game result:

Ball State (6.9, 5.2, SoS= 121, SAHFA= 3.69) is favored at home by 9.5 points over Northern Illinois (5.5, 5.2, SoS= 118)
Prediction: We call it for Ball State 43-20
Game result:

Boise State (6.2, 4.0, SoS= 107, SAHFA=10.79) is favored at home over Utah State (5.0, 6.0, SoS= 49) by 31.5 points
Prediction: We call it for Boise State 54-7
Game result:

Boston College (4.9, 4.4, SoS= 84, SAHFA= 2.65) is favored at home over Notre Dame (5.4, 5.0, SoS= 57) by 3 points
Prediction: Our stats see this game as exactly even so we go by the home team and 1 point, calling it for the Eagles 22-21.
Game result:

Buffalo (5.3, 6.0, SoS= 65, SAHFA= 4.87) is favored at home over Miami (Ohio) (4.6, 5.5, SoS= 109) by 7.5 points
Prediction: We call it for Buffalo 31-21
Game result:

Central Florida (3.7, 5.2, SoS= 80, SAHFA= 2.37) is a 1 point underdog at home to Southern Miss (6.0, 5.9, SoS= 89)
Prediction: Southern Miss 24 Central Florida 13
Game result:

Colorado (4.3, 5.3, SoS= 13, SAHFA= 2.89) is favored at home by 10 points over Iowa State (5.2, 6.7, SoS= 76)
Prediction: Colorado 33 Iowa State 14
Game result:

Duke (4.5, 5.3, SoS= 1, SAHFA=0.29) is favored at home by 4 points over North Carolina State (4.7, 5.9, SoS= 17)
Prediction: We call it for Duke 28-20
Game result:

East Carolina (5.3, 5.2, SoS= 73, SAHFA=0.96) is favored at home by 9.5 points over Marshall (5.2, 5.7, SoS= 105)
Prediction: We call it for East Carolina 30-17
Game result:

Florida Atlantic (5.5, 5.6, SoS= 85, SAHFA=?) is favored at home by 21 points over North Texas (5.1, 7.2, SoS= 91)
Prediction: We call if for Florida Atlantic 41-14
Game result:

Florida International (4.3, 5.1, SoS= 99, SAHFA=?) is a 3 point underdog at home to Arkansas State (6.3, 5.0, SoS= 112)
Prediction: We call it for Arkansas State 27-17
Game result:

Florida State (5.7, 4.5, SoS= 63, SAHFA=5.66) is a 6.5 point favorite at home over Clemson (5.6, 4.5, SoS= 39)
Prediction: We call it for Florida State 31-20
Game result:

Fresno State (6.4, 5.9, SoS= 104, SAHFA=8.32) is a 2 point favorite at home over Nevada (6.8, 5.7, SoS= 87)
Prediction: We call it 31-28 for Fresno State
Game result:

Houston (6.7, 5.6, SoS= 106, SAHFA=4.79) is a 14 point favorite at home over Tulane (5.3, 5.5, SoS= 78)
Prediction: We call it for Houston 39-21.
Game result:

Indiana (5.7, 5.5, SoS= 52, SAHFA=2.43) is a 10 point underdog at home to visiting Wisconsin (5.5, 5.1, SoS= 21)
Prediction: We call it for Wisconsin 31-27
Game result:

Iowa (5.9, 4.6, SoS= 60, SAHFA=4.07) is a 7 point underdog at home to visiting Penn State (6.7, 4.2, SoS= 69)
Prediction: We call it for Penn State 35-21
Game result:

Kentucky (4.6, 4.7, SoS= 58, SAHFA=2.64) is an 11.5 point underdog at home to Georgia (6.6, 5.1, SoS= 6)
Prediction: We call it for Georgia 31-17
Game result:

LSU (6.0, 4.9, SoS= 33, SAHFA=0.60) is a 3 point underdog at home to visiting Alabama (5.7, 4.1, SoS= 41)
Prediction: Our stats would favor Alabama by 7 but we call it for LSU, 28-27.
Game result:

Louisiana-Lafayette (7.0, 6.0, SoS= 120, SAHFA=3.66) is a 9 point favorite at home over UTEP (5.7, 6.8, SoS= 77)
Prediction: We call it for ULL by 43-21.
Game result:

Michigan State (5.2, 5.3, SoS= 45, SAHFA=5.95) is a 10 point favorite at home over Purdue (5.2, 5.3, SoS= 19)
Prediction: We call it 30-23 for Michigan State
Game result:

Middle Tennessee (4.6, 5.4, SoS= 82, SAHFA=6.56) is a 4 point favorite at home over Louisiana-Monroe (5.4, 6.5, SoS= 122)
Prediction: We call it for Middle Tennessee 31-21
Game result:

Minnesota (5.3, 5.6, SoS= 70, SAHFA=6.29) is a 7.5 point favorite at home over Michigan (4.5, 5.4, SoS= 28)
Prediction: We call it for Minnesota 45-28
Game result:

Missouri (7.4, 5.1, SoS= 31, SAHFA=7.96) is a 26 point favorite at home over Kansas State (6.0, 5.9, SoS= 42)
Prediction: We call it for Missouri 50-14
Game result:

New Mexico State (5.4, 5.6, SoS= 108, SAHFA=4.21) is a 3.5 point underdog at home to visiting Hawaii (5.2, 5.6, SoS= 27)
Prediction: We call it for Hawaii 27-23
Game result:

North Carolina (5.4, 4.8, SoS= 15, SAHFA=1.60) is a 4 point favorite at home over Georgia Tech (5.9, 4.3, SoS= 53)
Prediction: We call it for Georgia Tech 24-21.
Game result:

Northwestern (5.1, 4.9, SoS= 62, SAHFA=3.41) is an 11 point underdog at home against Ohio State (5.1, 4.3, SoS= 35)
Prediction: We call it for the Buckeyes 27-22.
Game result:

Ohio (5.4, 5.2, SoS= 98, SAHFA=4.42) is a 2.5 point underdog at home to visiting Bowling Green (5.2, 5.2, SoS= 95)
Prediction: Our stats make Ohio a 2 point favorite. We call it 24-22 for Ohio.
Game result:

Oregon (5.8, 4.7, SoS= 50, SAHFA=3.02) is a 13 point favorite at home against visiting Stanford (5.5, 5.2, SoS= 54)
Prediction: We call it 28-20 for Oregon.
Game result:

Pittsburgh (5.5, 5.1, SoS= 48, SAHFA=4.17) is a 6.5 point favorite at home over visiting Louisville (5.6, 4.9, SoS= 93)
Prediction: We call it for Pittsburgh 26-21
Game result:

Rice (6.2, 6.5, SoS= 88, SAHFA=4.24) is a 9.5 point favorite at home over Army (4.5, 4.9, SoS= 103)
Prediction: We call it for Rice 30-17
Game result:

Rutgers (5.2, 5.7, SoS= 23, SAHFA=6.34) is a 14 point favorite at home over Syracuse (5.1, 6.1, SoS= 25)
Prediction: We call it for Rutgers 30-20.
Game result:

SMU (5.8, 6.6, SoS= 64, SAHFA=4.11) is a 2 point underdog at home to Memphis (5.8, 6.2, SoS= 102)
Prediction: This looks like an even match so we go with the home team and call it 41-40 for SMU.
Game result:

San Jose State (4.7, 4.6, SoS= 96, SAHFA=-1.31) is an 8.5 point favorite at home over Louisiana Tech (5.0, 5.5, SoS= 92)
Prediction: We call it for San Jose State 28-23
Game result:

South Carolina (4.9, 4.1, SoS= 22, SAHFA=3.20) is a 10 point favorite at home over Arkansas (5.4, 5.6, SoS= 8)
Prediction: We call it for South Carolina 31-17.
Game result:

Tennessee (4.6, 4.2, SoS= 14, SAHFA=2.03) is a 25.5 point favorite at home over Wyoming (4.5, 5.0, SoS= 75)
Prediction: We call it for Tennessee 30-14.
Game result:

Texas (6.7, 5.4, SoS= 4, SAHFA=2.47) is a 25.5 point favorite at home over Baylor (5.8, 5.2, SoS= 18)
Prediction: We call it 42-23 for Texas
Game result:

Texas A&M (5.5, 5.9, SoS= 34, SAHFA=5.14) is a 25 point underdog at home to visiting Oklahoma (6.8, 5.1, SoS= 24)
Prediction: We call it 44-21 for Oklahoma
Game result:

Texas Tech (7.4, 5.1, SoS= 55, SAHFA=7.09) is a 3.5 point favorite at home over Oklahoma State (7.3, 5.1, SoS= 71)
Prediction: Texas Tech 46 Oklahoma State 36
Game result:

Troy State (5.8, 4.6, SoS= 117, SAHFA=4.03) is favored at home by 18 points over Western Kentucky (5.0, 5.5, SoS= 101)
Prediction: We call it for Troy 43-21
Game result:

UCLA (4.4, 5.4, SoS= 36, SAHFA=3.34) is an underdog at home by 7.5 points against visiting Oregon State (5.9, 5.0, SoS= 16)
Prediction: We call it for Oregon State 34-14.
Game result:

UNLV (5.5, 6.4, SoS= 37, SAHFA=0.50) at home and visiting New Mexico (4.9, 5.0, SoS= 32) are seen as even by the line.
Prediction: We call it 31-24 for New Mexico.
Game result:

USC (6.7, 3.3, SoS= 30, SAHFA=1.06) is favored at home by 17 points over California (5.8, 4.2, SoS= 40)
Prediction: 30-10 for USC.
Game result:

Utah (5.8, 4.3, SoS= 72, SAHFA=2.20) is a 2 point underdog at home to visiting TCU (5.3, 3.8, SoS= 83)
Prediction: We call it for the Utes 21-16
Game result:

Vanderbilt (4.4, 4.7, SoS= 20, SAHFA=3.91) is a 23.5 point underdog at home to Florida (6.7, 4.6, SoS= 5)
Prediction: Our stats give a 23 to 24 point advantage for the Gators. We call it for Florida 34-10
Game result:

Virginia Tech (4.4, 5.2, SoS= 39, SAHFA=2.40) at home and Maryland (6.0, 5.1, SoS= 38) are seen by the line as even
Prediction: We call it for Maryland 31-17.
Game result:

Wake Forest (4.3, 4.9, SoS= 23, SAHFA=1.26) is a 3.5 point favorite at home over visiting Virginia (4.7, 5.2, SoS= 24)
Prediction: Our stats make this a 1-point game. We call it for the Cavaliers 21-20
Game result:

Washington (4.3, 7.1, SoS= 123, SAHFA=2.19) is a 14 point underdog at home against Arizona State (5.0, 5.3, SoS= 82)
Prediction: Arizona State 42 Washington 14
Game result:

Washington State (3.9, 6.8, SoS= 129, SAHFA=3.54) is a 39 point underdog at home against Arizona (5.7, 4.6, SoS= 51)
Prediction: Our stats make Arizona a 40-point favorite. We call it 47-7 for Arizona.
Game result:

West Virginia (5.8, 4.4, SoS= 33, SAHFA=-0.43) is an 8 point favorite at home over Cincinnati (5.7, 4.8, SoS= 34)
Prediction: West Virginia 27 Cincinnati 23
Game result:

Western Michigan (6.3, 5.4, SoS= 53, SAHFA=0.03) is a 7 point underdog at home to visiting Illinois (6.4, 5.2, SoS= 52)
Prediction: Our stats call this game dead even and so we go with the home team and call it for Western Michigan 24-23.
Game result:

Full post as published by LawPundit on October 26, 2008 (boomark / email).