Legal Commentary

ODM Statement in full

By Ory Okolloh

Click here for page 1 and here for page 2.

Not even a mention of the people who lost their lives! Especially the young people who truly believed they are protesting for a good cause and who were responding to “mass action.”

I predict this is the beginning of the end of ODM. Since it is clear that we will still firmly remain in a tribal math game as far as political assignments and barring the appearance of some new blood, my looking glass says…

Ruto wants the top prize, and this unfortunate backtrack by Raila firmly puts him (Ruto) in the drivers seat. Emboldened by the numbers he can carry in Rift Valley, expect Ruto to work to bring others into the fold as he engineers his ODM takeover. It looks like Ababu is his proxy for Western, turncoat Kalonzo (who’s also against the implementation for Waki) won’t be averse to being wooed for Eastern, Balala will be the Coast proxy, and Uhuru might be open to seeking an effective counter measure to Karua (or at worst the central vote would be split). Raila won’t be left with many cards to play, IF, he decided to split ODM…even some Nyanza guys are starting to build distance. He has Mudavadi, who cannot deliver Western solidly and might be able to make overtures to Ngilu (or gasp! Uhuru) but that’s about it.

It’s all so depressing…ain’t it?

I still believe the Waki issue gives Kenyans a small window to get rid of the whole lot and the rotting institutions that prop them up…or at the very least…an opportunity to get re-energized about radical change… so I will continue to focus my energies on that.

Full post as published by Kenyan Pundit on October 31, 2008 (boomark / email).