Legal Commentary

Why McCain Doesn't Have the Numbers to Win

By Jeralyn

Sure, as I've been saying for a few months, the election is now about turnout. Even so, ABC News boils down the electoral map in such a way that it seems impossible John McCain can win:

If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada.

...If you take all four of these states that will be decided relatively early on Election Night next Tuesday -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida -- McCain has to win three out of four of those states to even have a chance of getting to 270 electoral votes.

It gets worse for McCain: Even Montana is no longer a sure thing and McCain has begun advertising there this week. [More...]

Given that campaign staffers are going public with the rift between the Palin and McCain camps and playing the blame game, it's evident to me that the McCain internal polling numbers show he's lost.

What was the turning point? The economy was a bubbling factor all along. In the end, it may be these three things that drove the final nails in the coffin that has become the McCain/Palin campaign:

1. McCain's pick of Sarah Palin
2. McCain's age and previous health issues
3. The Katie Couric interviews of Sarah Palin.

The Katie Couric interviews seem to be what turned the nation, as opposed to just liberal bloggers, against Sarah Palin. She never recovered and McCain sank like a lead balloon after them.

Many books will be written about this election -- which isn't over yet. But, assuming Obama wins, what do you think was the biggest turning point from which McCain could not recover?

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 28, 2008 (boomark / email).