Immigration Law

CHUCK TODD: HISPANICS ARE KEY TO AN OBAMA WIN

By Greg Siskind

The media may be focusing on the turnout of African-Americans and young voters, but another group will also be critical, according to the Chuck Todd, NBC News' political head honcho. Todd sees Hispanics as the key to winning critical western states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. And Hispanics will also prove important in North Carolina, VIrginia and Florida.

Why has McCain had problems with America's Latino voters?:

As for McCain, despite his best efforts (as well as that of President Bush and Karl Rove), the Republican brand has been tainted, potential for the long-term, due to the negative tone of the immigration debate that took place on conservative talk radio and in the presidential primaries.

In fact, McCain's immigration stance was so damaging that it is what nearly derailed his candidacy in mid-2007, not Iraq as the campaign sometimes likes to claim.

McCain ended up backing off a bit on his immigration stance. And to many Hispanics, it may have looked like McCain chose his party over his convictions on the issue.

As for Hispanics' willingness to vote for African-Americans, this was about as tested of a premise as the so-called "Bradley effect." Too many analysts went with their gut or with one example in one big city, rather than truly examining whether there was prejudice between Hispanics and blacks.

Todd gives an actual target number for Obama supporters to watch. Any Hispanic voting percentage over 65% virtually assures Obama of a win in the western states trifecta of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. He's been hitting better than that target in national polls so the Democrats are presumably pleased.

But Hispanic voters need to go one step further than votng. They need to press the Obama campaign to commit to making immigraton reform a priority for the First 100 days agenda of an Obama White House. And they need to get this commitment BEFORE the election.

Full post as published by Greg Siskind's Blog on October 27, 2008 (boomark / email).